尿素日报：气头开工下降，下游刚需采购-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The spot price of urea has loosened, and downstream purchases are based on rigid demand. In the fourth quarter, gas - based plant maintenance started in December, and the previous maintenance of coal - based enterprises has gradually recovered. All new production capacities in 2025 have been put into operation, and the daily output of urea has slightly decreased. Currently, the off - season storage procurement is in progress. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer in the Northeast has continued to increase, while some plants in Hubei and other places have insufficient start - up due to raw material and weather factors, with the overall start - up slightly increasing. The melamine plant has resumed production, and the start - up rate has rebounded, with rigid demand for procurement. As off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export procurement activities take place, the factory inventory has decreased, and the port inventory has slightly increased. After the off - season storage replenishment, the subsequent procurement rhythm has slowed down. Currently, new order procurement has slightly slowed down. Attention should be paid to the start - up rate of compound fertilizer in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [6][7][8][13][15] 2. Urea Production - Figures include the weekly urea production and the urea plant maintenance loss volume [23][25] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The report shows figures on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [22][24][28][29] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Figures cover the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, the price differences, and the export profit and disk export profit [31][35][40] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - Figures include the start - up rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [45][46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract [50][53][57]