新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-12）-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weakening [2] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Oscillating weakly [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Weakening [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [4] - SSE 50: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [6] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [6] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [6] - Pulp: Oscillating strongly [8] - Offset paper: Oscillating [8] - Soybean oil: Trading in a range [8] - Palm oil: Trading in a range [8] - Rapeseed oil: Trading in a range [8] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [9] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [9] - Live pigs: Weakening [9] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [11] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The main trend of the iron ore market remains "loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories". The price of iron ore will oscillate weakly, and there may be opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - The supply of coking coal and coke faces short - term pressure, and the prices are weakening. However, there is support at the bottom [2]. - The downstream demand for rebar is sluggish, and the price is oscillating. The steel price depends on production cuts and the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [2]. - The price of glass is weakening, and its future trend depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. - The central economic work conference sets a tone for next year's economic policy. The stock index futures market shows different trends, and the bond market is consolidating [4]. - The price of gold is oscillating strongly, supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, etc. The short - term factors are the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment [6]. - The log market has weak demand and is oscillating at the bottom. The pulp market is oscillating strongly, affected by cost and demand [6][8]. - The price of edible oils is trading in a range, affected by factors such as demand, inventory, and production [8]. - The price of soybean meal and related products is oscillating, affected by factors such as global supply, trade, and domestic demand [8][9]. - The price of live pigs is weakening, with stable supply and limited terminal - demand growth [9]. - The price of rubber is oscillating weakly, with supply affected by weather and demand not strong enough [11]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF in the polyester market show different trends, mainly affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the price oscillates weakly. There may be opportunities to short on rebounds after restocking [2]. - Coal and coke: In November, Mongolian coal imports are expected to reach a new high this year. The second round of coke price cuts has started. The prices are weakening, but there is support at the bottom [2]. - Rebar: Downstream demand is low, and the winter - storage restocking has not started. The price is oscillating, and the core lies in steel demand [2]. - Glass: The price is weakening. The processing orders are sluggish. The inventory is decreasing but still higher than the same period last year. The future trend depends on cold - repair progress [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The central economic work conference emphasizes positive fiscal and monetary policies. The stock index shows different trends, and the market is affected by factors such as industry capital flow and economic policies [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is flat, and the market is in a small - scale rebound after a net capital withdrawal [4]. - Automobile and real estate: In November, automobile production and sales increased, and new - energy vehicles had strong growth. In 2026, more real - estate policies are expected, and the decline in the new - commodity - housing sales area is expected to narrow [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Their prices are oscillating strongly, supported by central bank gold purchases, "de - dollarization", geopolitical risks, and increased physical - gold demand in China. The short - term factors are the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment [6]. Light Industry - Logs: The port shipment volume and national出库 volume have increased, but the demand is in the off - season. The supply pressure may gradually decrease, and the price is oscillating at the bottom [6][8]. - Pulp: The spot price is rising, and the cost support is increasing. However, the demand is not strong, and the price may return to the supply - demand fundamentals after the digestion of positive news [8]. - Offset paper: The spot price is stable. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Oilseeds and Oils - Edible oils: The demand for soybean oil has uncertainties. The palm - oil inventory in Malaysia is high, and the domestic oil supply is abundant. The price is expected to trade in a range [8]. - Soybean meal and related products: The global soybean supply is loose. The domestic supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand has support but also has problems. The price is expected to oscillate [8][9]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight shows different trends in the north and south. The terminal - demand growth is limited, and the price is expected to decline further [9]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply in different regions is affected by weather. The demand is not strong enough, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [11]. Polyester - PX: The supply is high, and the demand is boosted. The price is in wide - range oscillation [11]. - PTA: The cost is unstable, and the short - term supply - demand improves, but the long - term trend is weak. The price follows the cost [11]. - MEG: The long - term inventory pressure exists, and the short - term price is weakly oscillating [11]. - PR and PF: PR may stop falling and stabilize, and PF is at a low - price level [11].