12月FOMC会议简评：眼下的鸽与未来的鹰

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month FOMC meeting cut the interest rate by 25bp as expected, but the forward - looking guidance was hawkish, compressing the future easing space. The interest rate path shifted from "continuous rate cuts" to "data - dependent slow - paced easing", and the market repriced the hawkish forward - looking information [5]. - The Fed unexpectedly restarted short - term balance - sheet expansion in advance, with a monthly purchase of about $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds, and a total bond - buying scale of about $60 billion including MBS reinvestment. This move improved short - term liquidity but did not change the long - and medium - term downward trend of overall interest rates [5]. - After the 12 - month rate cut, the long - end U.S. Treasury yields did not decline significantly. The "profit - taking" effect and the rebalancing of global liquidity and carry - trade structure led to a sell - off of long - end U.S. Treasuries [5]. - The policy structure of this meeting was typically "dovish now, hawkish in the future". The short - term interest rates and risk assets benefited, but the long - end interest rates needed to re - incorporate a higher risk premium. The main logic of the interest - rate market shifted from "trading rate cuts" to "waiting for data and the new chairman's policy inclination" [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Itself: A Hawkish Neutral Rate Cut - The overall tone of this rate cut was hawkish. The dot - plot showed only one rate cut in 2026, less than the market's expectation, compressing the future easing space. The statement hinted at a possible slowdown or pause in the rate - cut rhythm. Future rate cuts would depend highly on employment and inflation data [8]. - This rate cut was a "risk - management rate cut" rather than the start of a new strong rate - cut cycle. Based on the hawkish guidance, the long - end interest rates might rebound. The policy choice was between "maintaining the status quo" and "how much to cut", and the 2026 interest - rate path would depend on data [9]. 3.2 The Fed's Early Restart of Balance - Sheet Expansion - Starting from December 12, the Fed began to buy about $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds monthly, with a total bond - buying scale of about $60 billion including MBS reinvestment. This short - term balance - sheet expansion aimed to maintain the bank - system reserves at an "abundant level" and improve money - market liquidity, which was earlier than expected [10]. 3.3 Interest - Rate Market: The Landing of Rate - Cut Benefits vs. Liquidity Spillover Effects 3.3.1 "Profit - Taking" Logic - After the rate cut, the long - end U.S. Treasuries did not rally significantly because the market had already priced in continuous rate - cut expectations since the second half of 2025. The new dot - plot was hawkish, restricting the downward space of long - end interest rates, which were likely to enter a range - bound pattern [13]. 3.3.2 Changes in Global Liquidity and Carry - Trade Structure: Rising Japanese Bond Yields and U.S. Dollar Fund Repatriation Pressure - The rapid rise in Japanese bond yields narrowed the U.S. - Japan interest - rate spread, weakening the "sell Japanese bonds, buy U.S. bonds" carry - trade strategy. Funds flowed back to Japan, leading to the liquidation of carry - trade positions and putting pressure on long - end U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. reserve shortage amplified this impact, which also explained the Fed's early balance - sheet expansion [14].