国泰君安期货商品研究

Report Industry Investment Rating - Hold short positions in crude oil and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [1] Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 fell $0.86, or 1.47%, to $57.60 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 fell $0.93, or 1.49%, to $61.28 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down 6.40 yuan per barrel, or 1.45%, to 434.80 yuan per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [10] Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for various crude oils such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, etc., are closed, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -1.16 to -8.39 USD/barrel, showing weak competitiveness [2] 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has no cost - advantage against Bonny Light, with an arbitrage space of -0.3 USD/barrel; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend present arbitrage opportunities with spaces of 0.93 and 2.68 USD/barrel respectively; Urals has a huge arbitrage space of 23.2 USD/barrel due to sanctions [4] 3. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light show arbitrage opportunities against Forties, with arbitrage spaces ranging from 0.9 to 2.23 USD/barrel; Azeri Light has a weak arbitrage space [5] 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford against Urals are closed, with large negative arbitrage spaces, indicating weak competitiveness [6][7] 5. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars against Dubai present arbitrage opportunities, with spaces of 1.2, 5.08, and 1.33 USD/barrel respectively; Basrah Heavy and Maya have closed arbitrage windows [8] 6. Key Market News - Trump promised to contribute to Ukraine's security efforts if Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached; Trump mentioned that actions in Venezuela will soon take place on land; the Central Economic Work Conference was held on December 10 - 11 [11]