GDP的顶梁柱：房地产之后下一个是什么？

Economic Structure - The main contributors to China's GDP in 2024 are consumption (56.55%), investment (40.61%), and net exports (2.84%) [10] - The contribution rates to GDP growth are 44.47% from consumption, 25.22% from investment, and 30.31% from net exports [11] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector's GDP share peaked above 8% between 2018 and 2020, but has since declined to 6.27% in 2024 [25][29] - The real estate industry's nominal GDP growth has been consistently lower than the overall economic growth since 2019, indicating a significant shift [27] Future Growth Drivers - Future economic growth is expected to be supported by technology-driven sectors such as information technology and leasing services, as well as industries benefiting from productivity improvements like wholesale retail and manufacturing [2] - Key areas for future growth include the modernization of the industrial system, driven by government policies and technological advancements [1] Policy Implications - Long-term national policies, such as the five-year plan, are crucial for ensuring sustainable economic development and balancing sectoral growth [2] - The macroeconomic policy environment is expected to maintain a positive fiscal stance and moderately loose monetary policy, with potential innovations in monetary tools [2] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, rapid economic downturns in developed economies, and increasing international geopolitical complexities [2]