Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Interest rate bonds: From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 96.51 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 188.68 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 92.17 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funds prices showed mixed trends. During December 1 - 7, 2025, 43.0717 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds were issued, with total repayments of 51.0485 billion yuan and a net financing of - 7.9767 billion yuan. Long - term treasury bond yields increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 43.95BP to 44.64BP [1]. - Credit bonds: From December 1 to 7, 2025, 802 credit bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit) were issued in the primary market, totaling 93.1004 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.6083 billion yuan from the previous period, with a net financing of 21.1647 billion yuan. Credit bond yields to maturity increased. For example, among urban investment bonds, the 10 - year yields of AA +, AA, and AA - ratings increased the most, by 7.79BP [2]. - Observation of major asset classes: From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, European three major stock indexes showed divergence, US bond yields mostly increased, the US dollar index weakened, non - US currencies strengthened, crude oil prices rebounded during the week, and gold futures and spot prices showed divergence [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bonds: Long - term Treasury Bond Yields Increase, Term Spread Widens 1.1 Liquidity Observation: Net Liquidity Decline, Mixed Fund Movements - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net withdrawal was 92.17 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank and exchange funds prices showed mixed trends. For example, DR001 decreased by 0.30BP to 1.3003%, and DR007 decreased by 2.88BP to 1.4380% [16]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance: Decrease in Net Financing, Decline in Local Bond Issuance - From December 1 to 7, 2025, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was - 7.9767 billion yuan. Treasury bonds raised 22.3 billion yuan, policy - based financial bonds raised 9.9 billion yuan, and local government bond issuance decreased, raising 10.8717 billion yuan [25]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading: Long - term Treasury Bond Yields Increase, Term Spread Widens - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, long - term treasury bond yields increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds widened from 43.95BP to 44.64BP, and that of policy - bank bonds widened from 34.94BP to 37.66BP [32]. 2. Credit Bonds: Credit Bond Yields to Maturity Increase 2.1 Primary Market Issuance: Decrease in Issuance Volume Compared with the Previous Period - From December 1 to 7, 2025, 802 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, a decrease of 23.6083 billion yuan from the previous period, with a net financing of 21.1647 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of issuance number, and financial bonds accounted for the highest proportion in terms of issuance amount. The issuance was mainly in the 3 - 5 - year range, and the construction industry had the largest number of bond issuances [44]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading: Credit Bond Yields to Maturity Increase - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, urban investment bond yields to maturity increased, with the 10 - year yields of AA +, AA, and AA - ratings increasing the most, by 7.79BP. Among medium - and short - term notes, the 5 - year yield of AA + rating increased the most, by 4.74BP [54]. 2.3 One - Week Review of Credit Default Events - From December 1 to 7, 2025, 1 enterprise's credit bonds defaulted [56]. 3. Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 Most European and American Stock Indexes Rise - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, European three major stock indexes showed divergence, and Asia - Pacific stock indexes generally rose [57]. 3.2 Most US Bond Yields Increase - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, most US bond yields increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 12.00BP to 53.00BP [60]. 3.3 The US Dollar Index Weakens, Non - US Currencies Strengthen - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the US dollar index decreased by 0.46%, and non - US currencies strengthened. For example, the British pound against the US dollar increased by 0.77%, and the euro against the US dollar increased by 0.37% [64]. 3.4 Crude Oil Rebounds During the Week, Gold Futures and Spot Prices Diverge - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, COMEX gold futures prices decreased by 0.62%, London spot gold prices increased by 1.24%, Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.87%, and WTI crude oil prices increased by 2.61% [66]. 4. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, ultra - long - term bonds are experiencing increased volatility. The reasons may include the transmission of market sentiment caused by the credit risks of bonds like those of Vanke, trading congestion, and changes in policy expectations. The bond market in the next week may focus on policy games and changes in the capital market. Investors are recommended to pay attention to the policy signals from the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the results of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting. They should focus on the support level of around 1.85% for 10 - year treasury bonds. If policies exceed expectations, they can appropriately shorten the duration. Ultra - long - term bonds need to avoid short - term fluctuations and wait for central bank policy signals. For credit bonds, focus on the allocation value of Tier 2 capital bonds and long - duration credit bonds [70].
固收周报：超长债仍需规避短期波动，静待政策信号-20251212
Yong Xing Zheng Quan·2025-12-12 05:47