中辉黑色观点-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil): Cautiously bearish [1][4][5] - Iron Ore: Cautiously bearish [1][7][8] - Coke: Bearish [1][10][11] - Coking Coal: Bearish [1][14][15] - Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon): Cautiously bearish for manganese silicon; bearish for ferrosilicon [1][18][19] 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: Production and apparent demand decreased month-on-month, with absolute levels at the lowest for the same period. Inventory depletion was normal. Macro policies had limited impact on the market. With hot metal production dropping below 2.3 million tons, raw material demand was under pressure. In the medium term, it may fluctuate within a range due to weak drivers and low valuation [1][4][5] - Hot-rolled Coil: Production and apparent demand continued to decline slightly. Inventory reduction was slow, remaining at the highest level in recent years. Spot prices were relatively weak, with the basis fluctuating around par. In the medium term, it will operate within a range and may be relatively weaker than rebar [1][4][5] - Iron Ore: Hot metal production decreased month-on-month, with further reduction expected. Steel mills reduced inventory while port inventory increased. The decline in both arrivals and shipments of foreign ores provided short-term support to ore prices. Although the economic work conference boosted ore prices in the short term, prices will still face pressure after the sentiment-driven trading [1][6][7] - Coke: The second round of spot price cuts has begun. Some regions implemented production restrictions due to environmental protection. Although coke enterprises' production enthusiasm was acceptable, regional supply decreased slightly. With the decline in hot metal production, raw material demand was suppressed, and the supply-demand structure remained loose, following the weak trend of coking coal [1][9][10] - Coking Coal: Domestic coal production decreased month-on-month, while clean coal inventory continued to increase. Some coal mines reduced production as they were approaching their annual production targets, and short-term production is expected to remain low. The number of customs clearance vehicles at ports remained high, and Mongolian coal prices continued to weaken. Although downstream enterprises replenished inventory after the recent spot market decline, overall demand was limited. The fundamentals weakened, and it will maintain a weak trend [1][13][14] - Manganese Silicon: Port ore prices remained firm, with a slight increase in the far-month quotation of Australian ores. Regional supply increased month-on-month, demand weakened, and inventory continued to rise. The December steel procurement has started, with a leading steel mill setting the final price at 5,770 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. Short-term cost support remains, and the supply-demand structure is relatively loose, with prices expected to fluctuate within a range [1][17][18] - Ferrosilicon: Main production areas slightly reduced production, demand continued to weaken, and inventory increased significantly month-on-month. The December steel procurement has started, with a leading steel mill setting the final price at 5,660 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The supply-demand structure remains relatively loose, and a bearish view is taken [1][17][18] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Price Information: For rebar, the latest prices of 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,085, 3,117, and 3,149 respectively, with changes of -30, +38, and +38. For hot-rolled coil, the latest prices of 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,243, 3,282, and 3,248 respectively, with changes of -37, +30, and -44 [2] - Spread Information: The RB 10 - 01 spread was 64 with a change of 0; the HC 10 - 01 spread was 5 with a change of -7. The roll - rebar spread for 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 158, 165, and 99 respectively, with changes of -7, -8, and -82 [2] Iron Ore - Price Information: The latest prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 780, 757, and 733 respectively, with changes of -8, -12, and -12. Spot prices of PB powder, Yangdi powder, and BRBF powder also had corresponding changes [6] - Spread Information: The i01 - 05 spread was 23 with a change of 12; the i05 - 09 spread was 24 with a change of 0; the i09 - 01 spread was -47 with a change of -12. Other spreads and ratios also showed different changes [6] Coke - Price Information: The latest prices of 1, 5, and 9 - month contracts were 1,491.5, 1,657.0, and 1,737.0 respectively, with changes of -35.5, -44.0, and -45.0. Spot prices of different grades of coke in various regions also had corresponding changes [9] - Spread Information: The J01 - 05 spread was -165.5 with a change of 8.5; the J05 - 09 spread was -80.0 with a change of 1.0; the J09 - 01 spread was 245.5 with a change of -9.5 [9] Coking Coal - Price Information: The latest prices of 1, 5, and 9 - month contracts were 934.0, 1,035.0, and 1,112.0 respectively, with changes of -29.0, -35.0, and -36.5. Spot prices of different types of coking coal also had corresponding changes [13] - Spread Information: The JM01 - 05 spread was -101.0 with a change of 6.0; the JM05 - 09 spread was -77.0 with a change of 1.5; the JM09 - 01 spread was 178.0 with a change of -7.5 [13] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Price Information: For manganese silicon, the latest prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 5,738, 5,758, and 5,800 respectively, with changes of -20, -10, and -10. For ferrosilicon, the latest prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 5,352, 5,382, and 5,444 respectively, with changes of -20, -12, and -12. Spot prices also had corresponding changes [17] - Spread Information: The SM 09 - 01 spread was 102 with a change of 10; the SF 09 - 01 spread was 92 with a change of 8. Other spreads also showed different changes [17]