光大期货能化商品日报-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is facing multi - dimensional challenges. Geopolitical factors such as the recurring Russia - Ukraine conflict and the situation in Venezuela, along with the prominent contradiction of supply surplus during the off - season of demand, lead to the repeated and volatile operation of oil prices. All varieties in the energy and chemical sector are expected to show an oscillating trend [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Thursday, oil prices continued to decline. The WTI January contract closed down $0.86 at $57.60 per barrel, a 1.47% drop; the Brent February contract closed down $0.93 at $61.28 per barrel, a 1.49% drop; SC2601 closed at 435.6 yuan per barrel, down 5.6 yuan per barrel, a 1.27% decline. OPEC+ increased production slightly in November, and both OPEC and IEA made adjustments to their supply and demand forecasts for next year. The oil market is expected to oscillate [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.57% to 2382 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2602 fell 0.67% to 2986 yuan per ton. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure, and it is expected that the current supply - driven market fundamentals will continue until January next year. The absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to remain low and oscillate [3]. - Asphalt: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.92% to 2960 yuan per ton. The social inventory rate decreased, the refinery inventory level increased, and the plant operating rate decreased. The winter storage policy of refineries is gradually being implemented, and it is predicted that the winter storage price will likely fall to a relatively low level in the past five years. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [3]. - Polyester: TA601 rose 1.04% to 4664 yuan per ton; EG2601 fell 2.25% to 3599 yuan per ton. PX is expected to face pressure at the end of the year. TA prices are expected to decline with cost pressure, and ethylene glycol prices are under pressure with long - term inventory accumulation risks [5]. - Rubber: On Thursday, the main natural rubber contract RU2601 fell 30 yuan per ton to 15185 yuan per ton; the NR main contract remained unchanged at 12270 yuan per ton; the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 10710 yuan per ton. The improvement of overseas production area weather, the impact of border conflicts on rubber tapping, and limited demand support led to a slight rebound in rubber futures prices [5][7]. - Methanol: Iranian plant shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. Port inventories are expected to enter the destocking stage from mid - December this year to early January next year, but the time may be postponed. Methanol prices have an upper limit, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7]. - Polyolefins: Supply will remain high, and downstream demand will weaken. However, due to the low valuation, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7][9]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): Some devices are planned to reduce production this week, and domestic real - estate construction will slow down. The overall fundamentals are bearish, but the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the repair of the basis [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical varieties on December 11, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC reported that the OPEC+ alliance slightly increased production in November, and maintained the forecast of relatively strong demand growth for next year. The production in November was 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of 43,000 barrels per day from the previous month. The average demand for OPEC+ crude oil in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be 42.6 million barrels per day, and 43 million barrels per day for the whole year [12]. - The IEA lowered its forecast of the global oil supply surplus for next year for the first time since May. The global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 4.09 million barrels per day. The expected increase in global oil supply next year is 2.4 million barrels per day, and the expected increase in demand is 860,000 barrels per day, 90,000 barrels per day higher than the previous forecast. The EIA also raised the forecast of oil demand growth in 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc [15][16]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc [33]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for various varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc [46]. - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It includes the spread charts between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external markets, fuel oil's high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc [63]. - 4.5 Production Profits: The production profit charts of LLDPE and PP are presented [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [76][77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [81].