中辉农产品观点-20251212

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal is expected to have a short - term adjustment. Although the procurement of US soybeans has started, the US market has doubts about the export prospects, and the weak export shipment data has led to the consolidation of US soybeans at a high level. The current supply is sufficient, but due to rumors of import delays and South American weather disturbances, the previous short positions can consider taking profits gradually [1][4]. - The rapeseed meal is also in a short - term adjustment, following the trend of soybean meal. The fundamentals have no major fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the import policy of Australian rapeseed and the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][7]. - The palm oil is in short - term consolidation. The expected production reduction in Southeast Asia in December limits its adjustment space, and attention should be paid to the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month [1][9]. - The soybean oil is expected to have a short - term bullish oscillation. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and with the end of the US Department of Agriculture's December report and the stabilization of the palm oil market, it shows a bullish tendency [1]. - The rapeseed oil is in a range - bound oscillation. The import supply is relatively low year - on - year, and it is not advisable to blindly short sell [1]. - The cotton is expected to oscillate strongly. The international market focuses on weather, and the domestic new cotton inspection is more than half completed with strong sales. However, attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback risk in mid - and late December [1][13]. - The jujube is expected to have a short - term rebound. Although the high inventory still suppresses the price, most of the premium caused by the speculation of production reduction has been squeezed out, and short - term rebound opportunities can be focused on [1][17]. - The live pig is recommended to be sold short on rebounds. The short - and medium - term supply pressure is high, and the 01 contract should avoid short - term long - position risks, while the 03 contract can be short - sold after a rebound. Attention should also be paid to the 3 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [1][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 937 million tons, a decrease of 20.60 million tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 715.52 million tons, a decrease of 2.51% from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 116.19 million tons, a decrease of 3.43% from last week. The physical inventory days of feed enterprises increased [4]. - The domestic supply - demand fundamentals have little change, the oil mill's crushing volume remains high, and the de - stocking process of soybean meal is slow, which suppresses the increase of the spot basis [4]. - Rumors of 15 - day import delays and South American weather disturbances have led to a temporary halt in the decline of soybean meal, and previous short positions can consider taking profits [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - As of December 5, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons, and the unexecuted contract was 0 million tons [7]. - The spot market is dull, with weak downstream purchasing willingness and limited effective demand. There is no strong driving force and it follows the trend of soybean meal. The short - term trend is considered to be above 2270 yuan [1][7]. Palm Oil - As of December 5, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 68.37 million tons, an increase of 4.62% from last week. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 10 decreased by 16.41% compared with the same period last month [9]. - In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production, import, and export decreased, while the inventory increased. The expected production reduction in December limits the adjustment space, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of stabilizing and going long [1][9]. Cotton - International: In the US, the new cotton harvest is nearly complete, with a progress of 79% and a inspection progress of about 40.2%. In India, the new cotton daily listing volume is 16,000 - 20,000 tons. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and the non - main producing areas have started sowing the 2026 new cotton [11]. - Domestic: The new cotton picking is basically completed, the inspection volume exceeds 4.95 million tons, and the sales progress is fast. The total production is expected to increase by 260,000 tons to 7.68 million tons. The import volume in October was 223,000 tons, and the inventory has increased [12]. - The ICE market is expected to oscillate. The domestic cost support is strengthened, but attention should be paid to the production increase forecast. The demand shows resilience, and long positions can be considered on dips, with attention to the medium - and long - term recovery opportunities [1][13]. Jujube - Supply: The acquisition in some areas is ending, and the prices in some areas are weakening. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises this week is 13,910 tons, an increase of 3,062 tons from last week [16]. - Demand: The trading in the Cui'erzhuang market is mainly new jujubes, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased. The demand in the Ruyifang market is average [16]. - The high inventory suppresses the price, but most of the premium has been squeezed out. The short - term rebound opportunities can be focused on while maintaining a bearish attitude in the long - term [1][17]. Live Pig - Short - and medium - term: The supply pressure is high. The planned slaughter in December increases by 3.2%. The supply pressure will be gradually released around the Winter Solstice. The mid - term supply pressure will be relieved as the number of new - born piglets decreases [20][21]. - Long - term: The inventory of breeding sows in October decreased to 39.9 million heads, and the slaughter pressure at the end of the year is high. The industry is still in the early stage of losses [20]. - Demand: The pickling and enema activities in the southwest region are increasing, and the market is turning to a situation of both supply and demand being prosperous [20]. - The 01 contract should avoid short - term long - position risks, the 03 contract can be short - sold after a rebound, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [1][21].