碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 12 日）-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 11, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 3.97% to 98,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 800 yuan/ton to 93,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 750 yuan/ton to 91,000 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 400 yuan/ton to 82,330 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,070 tons to 14,750 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 260 tons to 13,744 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 200 tons to 2,876 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 15 tons to 3,075 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 14 tons to 2,303 tons. The lithium carbonate output in December is expected to increase by 3% month-on-month to 98,210 tons. In terms of demand, the output of ternary materials in December is expected to decrease by 7% month-on-month to 78,280 tons, and the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline by 1% month-on-month to 410,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 2,133 tons to 111,469 tons. Among them, downstream inventory decreased by 957 tons to 42,738 tons, inventory in other links increased by 430 tons to 49,570 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 1,606 tons to 19,161 tons [3]. - The weekly social inventory continued to decline. Coupled with recent disturbances from overseas resource/restart news, market sentiment strengthened and prices rose rapidly. However, the potential supply increment has not been released yet, and it is necessary to pay attention to the actual supply disturbance results [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The prices of most products in the lithium - battery industry chain increased on December 11, 2025. For example, the main contract closing price of futures rose 2,900 yuan/ton to 98,880 yuan/ton, the continuous contract closing price rose 1,960 yuan/ton to 95,600 yuan/ton, and the price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) rose 32 US dollars/ton to 1,210 US dollars/ton. However, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 173,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite with different Li₂O contents, and amblygonite with different Li₂O contents from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan, South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17][19]. - Precursors & Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [25][27][29]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from April 17, 2025, to December 4, 2025 [37][39]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, and 外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [42].