光大期货软商品日报（2025 年12月12日）-20251212

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.19% to 64 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.65% to 13,860 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 30,671 lots to 443,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,630 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan per ton from the previous day. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in December, but there were differences among voting members on the subsequent rate - cut path. The USDA December report slightly increased the expected output of U.S. cotton in the 2025/26 season. The domestic market had no obvious fundamental changes, and the focus of the market kept switching. High out - of - Xinjiang freight affected cotton transportation. The cotton consumption in November remained relatively high, but the consumption in the second half of November was lower than that in the first half. Currently, there are both long and short factors for Zhengzhou cotton, and it is in a short - term shock pattern with the upside space potentially larger than the downside space [1]. - For sugar, the spot price quotes were flat. The production progress in India and Thailand was within the expected increase range in the short term. Whether the raw - sugar price can give India export profits needs to be observed in the medium term. The domestic spot price has stabilized recently, the near - month contract on the futures market has stopped falling, and the May contract is hovering at a low level. It is in a short - term shock pattern, and the medium - term outlook is still not optimistic [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 10 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1153 yuan, down 71 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,835 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,013 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 124 yuan, up 24 yuan; the main - contract basis was 215 yuan, up 83 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5370 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5460 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On December 11, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2967, 3 less than the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 3585. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 14,835 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,096 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,017 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,198 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 51, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.8, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.6, down 0.1; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.5, up 0.1 [3]. - Sugar: On December 11, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 5370 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 5460 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 611, an increase of 215 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1490 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][15][17]