供需形势将逐步好转，低价格低利润有望修复：聚酯产业链年度报告

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ continued to increase production in 2025, leading to an oversupply of crude oil and a downward pressure on international oil prices. Although production increase will be suspended in Q1 2026, there is still a possibility of resuming production increase later, and the decline in oil prices in 2026 is expected to narrow [5][11]. - The growth rate of production capacity and output of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol in the polyester industry chain has slowed down, while demand will continue to show a slight growth trend, and the supply - demand relationship will improve. The low - price and low - profit operation situation of the industry will change, and the price center is expected to move up [11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - PX: In 2025, PX production decreased from February to April due to many device overhauls. From August to November, the operating rate was stable, and the cumulative production decline narrowed. The cumulative import volume increased slightly in the first 11 months. The supply - demand situation was good, with inventory decreasing from February to July and slightly increasing from August to September. The price fluctuated, with a cumulative decline of 1.5% as of early December [18][20]. - PTA: Three new PTA devices were put into operation from June to October, with a total capacity of 8.4 million tons/year. The average operating rate in the first 11 months decreased by 4.2 percentage points compared with last year, and the production growth rate was not high. The demand was good, especially from October to November. The social inventory decreased significantly, and the price showed a wide - range shock pattern, with a cumulative decline of about 4.5% as of December 11 [22][24]. - MEG: Three new ethylene glycol devices were put into operation in 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 5.3%. The supply growth was mainly due to the increase in the operating rate. The inventory showed a process of de - stocking and re - stocking. The price showed a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of more than 20% [27][30]. - Short Fiber: There was no new device put into operation in 2025, and the production increased slightly compared with last year. The export growth rate was high, but the domestic consumption demand was weak. The price showed a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of about 8% [32][34]. - Bottle Chip: The capacity expansion of bottle chips entered the end in 2025. Although the capacity growth rate slowed down, there was still a large supply pressure. The operating rate continued to decline, but the production increased by 6.7% in the first 11 months. The price showed a decline of 7 - 8%, and the profit was still poor [35][37]. II. Pay Attention to OPEC+'s Production Policy: Loose Crude Oil Supply is Hard to Resolve - Suspension of Production Increase in Q1, Possible Resumption Later: OPEC+ started to increase production from April 2025, with a cumulative increase of 2.877 million barrels/day. It decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026, but there is a possibility of resuming production increase in 2026. The three major institutions have continuously raised the global crude oil supply forecast, while the demand forecast is relatively stable, resulting in a loose supply situation [39][41]. - The Expected Production Increase May Materialize, Still Having a Bearish Impact on Oil Prices: The global crude oil supply is expected to be in a state of oversupply. Although the supply - demand imbalance is not obvious in the US crude oil data for now, it is expected to be reflected in the inventory data in 2026. The US oil and gas rig count decreased in 2025, but it did not have a significant impact on production. The international oil price was under pressure in 2025, and it is expected to be relatively strong in Q1 2026 but may be suppressed if production increase resumes [44][56]. III. Some Links in the Industry Chain Enter the Production Vacuum Period, and the Supply Growth Rate Will Significantly Decline - Overall Slowdown in Capacity Growth Rate, Operating Rate Becoming the Key Factor Affecting Supply: In 2025, there was no new PX device, and three new PTA devices and three new ethylene glycol devices were put into operation. In 2026, the new PX devices are expected to have limited supply increments due to late commissioning. There is no PTA new device plan in 2026, and the supply pressure will be reduced. The PX operating rate has little room for improvement, while the PTA operating rate has the potential to increase [57][66]. - Ethylene Glycol New Devices are Planned to be Put into Operation Late, and the Supply Growth Rate is Expected to Decline: In 2025, the ethylene glycol capacity increased by 5.3%. In 2026, there are many new device plans, but most of them are planned to be put into operation at the end of the year, with a possible delay. The ethylene glycol operating rate increased in 2025, but the absolute value is not high. It is expected that the supply growth rate will decline in 2026 [72][81]. IV. Demand is Rising Steadily, and the Adverse Factors Affecting Demand are Weakening - Steady Growth of Polyester Capacity, Good Demand Supporting High Operating Rate: In 2025, the polyester capacity increased by 5.5%, and the operating rate increased by 1.5 percentage points. The production increased by 7.6% in the first 11 months. It is expected that the polyester capacity will continue to grow moderately in 2026, but the growth rate will slow down [82][86]. - Polyester Raw Material Inventory Shows Seasonal Fluctuations, and Ethylene Glycol Inventory Rises Rapidly: The PTA inventory increased in the first quarter of 2025 and then decreased. In 2026, the supply growth mainly depends on the increase in the operating rate. The ethylene glycol inventory decreased from March to August and then increased rapidly from October to November. In 2026, the supply growth rate is expected to decline, and the supply - demand situation will improve [90][93]. - Profit Redistribution Will Still Occur, and the Industrial Chain Profits May Transfer to the Middle and Upper Reaches: In 2025, the production profits of PTA and bottle chips were poor, while those of long - fiber and short - fiber were acceptable. In 2026, the short - fiber and bottle - chip capacities will increase, which will have a bearish impact on processing fees, but the bottle - chip production profit is expected to improve slightly [94][98]. - The Base of Polyester Exports is High, and the Pressure for Further Growth Increases: In 2025, the exports of major polyester products increased year - on - year, with bottle chips having the largest export volume increase and short fibers having the highest export growth rate. The export destinations are relatively scattered. In 2026, the long - fiber may face inventory pressure, while the short - fiber inventory pressure is not large [99][109]. - Industrial Demand is Boosted, and the Downstream Operating Indicators Will Increase: The average operating rate of pure polyester yarn is basically the same as last year, while that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has decreased. With the growth of demand and the slowdown of capacity growth, the operating rate and production efficiency of the industry are expected to improve [110]. V. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Keeps Growing, and the Export Market is Expected to Recover - The Growth Rate of Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel is Not High, and it Will Maintain a Low - Growth Trend: In 2025, the growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales was low, and the growth rate of textile and apparel consumption was also low in the first half of the year but rebounded in the second half. The domestic textile and apparel consumption is expected to maintain a growth momentum [115][119]. - The Easing of Global Economic and Trade Relations is Conducive to the Recovery of Textile and Apparel Exports: In 2025, China's exports maintained positive growth despite the severe external environment. The textile and apparel exports decreased year - on - year, but it is expected to recover in 2026 [120][123]. VI. Summary and Outlook - Summary: In 2025, the continuous production increase of OPEC+ led to an oversupply of crude oil and a downward trend in oil prices. The prices of the polyester industry chain were affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, with PX and PTA performing better than oil, and ethylene glycol being the weakest. The industrial chain profits were generally low, with PTA and bottle chips having poor profits [125][128]. - Outlook: In Q1 2026, the international oil price is expected to strengthen, but there is still pressure from production increase later. The supply - demand situation of the polyester industry chain will gradually improve, with supply growth pressure easing and demand growing steadily. The industrial chain profits are expected to transfer from the downstream to PTA and PX, and the price center is expected to move up [129][131].