地缘依旧存在高度不确定性，油价或存反弹风险

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation remains highly uncertain, and there is a risk of an oil price rebound. Crude oil prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the rebound height is limited. The supply side is affected by OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical events, while the demand side is supported by the postponement of China's demand peak and the growth of chemical demand. The inventory side shows a tight market balance [1][4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On December 11, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract closed at 439.7 yuan per barrel, a slight decline of 0.9% from the previous day's 443.7 yuan per barrel. The WTI crude oil price remained at 58.96 US dollars per barrel, and the Brent crude oil price remained at 62.52 US dollars per barrel, showing short - term stability. The SC - Brent spread weakened by 175.86%, the SC - WTI spread weakened by 13.25%, the Brent - WTI spread remained stable at 3.56 US dollars per barrel, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread weakened by 65.0% [1][79]. - Position and Trading Volume: Position and trading volume data were not provided [80]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: Russia's crude oil deliveries to India and China have declined for three consecutive weeks due to new US sanctions. OPEC+ production increased slightly in November, and Algeria's production also increased. Kazakhstan's production plan was on schedule, but the Caspian pipeline attack caused a short - term supply interruption of about 480,000 tons. Overall, supply is affected by geopolitical events, but OPEC+ production increases dominate a small expansion [2][8][81]. - Demand Side: According to the report of the CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute on December 11, China's oil demand peak is expected to be postponed to 2040, and the peak level is higher than previously predicted. By 2050, the demand for chemical products and new materials will increase by 57% to 290 million tons, and the demand for refined oil products such as jet fuel will continue to grow [2][10][81]. - Inventory Side: From the week ending December 5, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1.8 million barrels to 125.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.4%. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 200,000 barrels to 411.9 million barrels. OPEC monthly report shows that OECD oil inventories decreased by 32 million barrels to 2.83 billion barrels in October. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4040 tons [3][11][81]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level. On the supply side, OPEC+ production increases and some countries' production increases are offset by supply interruptions caused by the attack in Kazakhstan. On the demand side, the postponement of China's demand peak and the growth of chemical demand support long - term demand. On the inventory side, the decline in OECD inventories shows a tight market balance [82]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: On December 11, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price decreased slightly, while the WTI and Brent prices decreased. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and SC continuous - consecutive 3 weakened, and the Brent - WTI spread increased slightly. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, strategic reserves increased, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased slightly [6]. - Fuel Oil: On December 11, 2025, the futures prices of FU and LU decreased, and the prices of some fuel oil spot and paper goods also decreased. The Singapore high - low sulfur spread and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased. Singapore fuel oil inventories increased, and some US distillate inventories increased while others decreased [7]. 3.5 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply: On December 11, Algeria's crude oil production in November increased by 10,000 barrels per day to 965,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ crude oil daily production in November was 43.06 million barrels, an increase of 43,000 barrels compared to October. Russia's energy ministry expects its 2025 oil production to remain at the 2024 level. Kazakhstan's 2025 oil production plan will be achieved as scheduled, but the Caspian pipeline attack caused a loss of 480,000 tons [8][9]. - Demand: The CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute predicts that China's oil demand will peak between 2025 and 2030, and the peak will be postponed to 2040 with a higher level. By 2050, the demand for chemicals and new materials will increase by 57% to 290 million tons, and the demand for chemical products, raw materials, and jet fuel will continue to grow [10]. - Inventory: OPEC monthly report shows that OECD oil inventories decreased by 32 million barrels to 2.83 billion barrels in October. Low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 4040 tons. Singapore's fuel oil inventory data for the week ending December 10 will be released soon [11]. - Market Information: As of the 2:30 closing, the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver increased, while the main contract of SC crude oil decreased. The main contract of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) decreased [12].