双焦：蒙古国推动增加煤炭出口，市场预期偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent double - coking futures market has shown a weak trend. The coking coal futures continue to decline, and the spot price is also weak. The increase in Mongolian coal imports and the weak market sentiment have put pressure on the domestic coal market. Although some domestic coal mines may reduce production at the end of the year, the reduction will be offset by imported Mongolian coal, and the improvement in coking coal supply and demand is limited. It is expected that the double - coking futures will continue to operate weakly in the near future. Attention should be paid to the subsequent downstream winter storage replenishment progress and the actual customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The market is expected to continue to operate weakly. Prudent investors can gradually stop profits on short positions. Pay attention to the subsequent downstream winter storage replenishment progress and the actual customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal [6]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Coking Coal - Spot Price: This week, the coking coal spot price continued to decline, with a poor market sentiment. The decline of Mongolian coal was more obvious. The Shanxi coal warehouse receipt was 1270 yuan/ton, the Mongolian 5 warehouse receipt was 1059 yuan/ton, and the Australian coal (port spot) warehouse receipt was 1175 yuan/ton [8]. - Domestic Supply: This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased slightly to 85.31% (- 0.28%). It is expected that the coking coal production will decline seasonally in mid - to - late December, but the reduction will be supplemented by imported coal, and the overall supply of coking coal is relatively loose [8]. - Imported Mongolian Coal: This week, the average daily customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to 1458, a week - on - week increase of 67. The Mongolian government plans to increase coal exports in 2026, aiming for 90 million tons in 2026 and 100 million tons in 2027. It is expected that the average daily customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port will remain high in December [8]. - Demand: This week, the coke production increased slightly. The average daily coke production of independent coking enterprises was 63.98 (- 0.55) tons, and that of steel - mill coking was 46.61 (- 0.01) tons, with a total coke production of 110.59 (- 0.56) tons. It is expected that the coke production will continue to decline slightly next week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent winter storage replenishment efforts of steel mills [8]. - Inventory: This week, the total coking coal inventory was 3884.2 (+ 90.1) tons. The inventory of coal mines, ports, and some coking enterprises increased, while the inventory of steel mills decreased slightly [8]. - Coke - Spot Price: This week, the second - round price cut of coke was implemented. It is expected that coke will continue to make up for the decline, and the probability of a third - round price cut next week is relatively high [9]. - Supply: This week, the coke production increased slightly. It is expected that the coke production will continue to decline slightly next week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent winter storage replenishment efforts of steel mills [9]. - Demand: This week, the hot metal production continued to decline. The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 229.20 (- 3.10) tons. It is expected that the hot metal production will show a slow downward trend in the future, and the consumption of raw materials will decrease. Attention should be paid to the raw material replenishment actions of steel mills [9]. - Inventory: This week, the total coke inventory was 971.2 (+ 23.7) tons. The inventory of coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports all increased [9]. - Profit: According to Steel Union data, the average national profit per ton of coke was 44 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was 61 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was 100 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was 5 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 89 yuan/ton [9]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Coking Coal Production: This week, the production of coking coal decreased slightly. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3%. The average daily production of raw coal was 189.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons. It is expected that more coal mines will reduce or stop production at the end of the year [13]. - Imported Mongolian Coal: The customs clearance volume of imported Mongolian coal at the three ports remained high. The Mongolian government's plan to increase coal exports has further weakened the market expectations [8]. - Hot Metal Production: This week, the hot metal production continued to decline seasonally. The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 229.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.10 tons [18]. - Price Indexes: The report also provides various price indexes of coking coal and coke, including domestic coking coal prices, imported coking coal prices, coke prices, and their corresponding basis and monthly spreads [21][23][29]. - Inventory Data: The report provides detailed inventory data of coking coal and coke, including the inventory of coal mines, ports, coking enterprises, and steel mills [8][9].