格林大华期货研究院专题报告：继往开来：学习中央经济工作会议

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11, 2025, guided the economic work in 2026, continuing the policy direction of the previous year with new details. The policy may shift from extraordinary to regular, with more emphasis on cross - cycle adjustment [1][5]. - The overall direction of economic work in 2026 is to continuously expand domestic demand, optimize supply, develop new - quality productivity, and promote economic growth in both quality and quantity [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Policy - Fiscal policy: Continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy. It is expected that the fiscal deficit rate in 2026 will remain at 4%, the new local government debt scale will be about 4 trillion yuan, the issuance scale of ultra - long - term treasury bonds will be moderately expanded, and the proportion of central government debt issuance will increase [2][6]. - Monetary policy: Continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. It is expected that there will be further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026. Liquidity in 2026 may be similar to that in the second half of this year, with relatively abundant liquidity. The RMB exchange rate may fluctuate within a two - way range [2][8]. 3.2 Consumption - A plan to increase urban and rural residents' income will be formulated and implemented in 2026, which may include improving social security for low - and middle - income groups and promoting fertility. The scope and categories of consumption policy support are expected to expand, and the consumption discount policy will continue [3][9]. 3.3 Investment - The government will promote investment to stop falling and stabilize. There is flexibility in government investment, and high - quality urban renewal will be advanced. More importantly, private investment needs to be activated. A relatively stable international environment is conducive to China's exports and private investment growth in 2026 [3][10]. 3.4 Real Estate Market - The government will strive to stabilize the real estate market, control new housing supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions. Encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The construction of high - quality housing will be promoted, and demand - side measures may include increasing residents' income and reducing housing purchase costs [3][11].