菜籽类市场周报：海关严查非转进口，推动菜油低位反弹-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Rapeseed Oil - This week, rapeseed oil futures first declined and then rose. The closing price of the 05 contract was 9,347 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Canadian rapeseed production increase and export decline restrain the market price, but the change in German regulations boosts rapeseed oil biodiesel consumption. The increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and weak exports drag down palm oil prices. In China, the supply of imported rapeseed is structurally tightened, and rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode. Customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports support its price. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and abundant soybean oil supply limit rapeseed oil demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. 2.2 Rapeseed Meal - This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed lower. The closing price of the 05 contract was 2,347 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The ample supply of US soybeans during the export season and competition from Brazilian soybeans, along with the uncertainty of China's soybean purchases, cause US soybean prices to decline. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is restricted, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand due to lower temperatures, and the substitution advantage of soybean meal lead to a situation of weak supply and demand. The market is affected by the decline in US soybean prices, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchase situation [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1 Rapeseed Oil - Market Review: The 05 contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,347 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Market Outlook: Canadian rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons. German policy changes boost biodiesel consumption. Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 13.04% to 2.84 million tons. In China, supply is tightened, and customs inspections support prices, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed and abundant soybean oil limit demand. Short - term trend is volatile [8]. 3.1.2 Rapeseed Meal - Market Review: The 05 contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2,347 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - Market Outlook: Ample US soybean supply, competition from Brazilian soybeans, and uncertainty of China's purchases affect prices. In China, supply is restricted, but demand is weak due to the arrival of Australian rapeseed, lower temperatures, and soybean meal substitution. The market is affected by US soybean price decline [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Market - Rapeseed Oil: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed lower. The total open interest was 171,027 lots, an increase of 40,771 lots from last week. The net short position of the top 20 futures holders decreased slightly to - 2,529 from - 6,768 last week. The registered warehouse receipts were 3,476 lots [15][21][25]. - Rapeseed Meal: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed lower. The total open interest was 581,668 lots, an increase of 86,710 lots from last week. The net short position of the top 20 futures holders increased significantly to - 70,504 from - 56,560 last week. The registered warehouse receipts were 0 lots [15][21][26]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,890 yuan/ton, with little change from last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was + 543 yuan/ton [35]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,410 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was + 63 yuan/ton [41]. 3.2.3 Other Market Indicators - Futures Month - to - Month Spread: The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was + 79 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 52 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [47]. - Futures - to - Spot Ratio: The ratio of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.982; the average spot price ratio was 4.10 [50]. - Price Spread between Oils and Meals: The 05 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,353 yuan/ton, with narrow fluctuations this week. The 05 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 795 yuan/ton, with a narrow and expanding spread this week. The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 423 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 650 yuan/ton as of Thursday [59][65]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Rapeseed - Supply: As of the end of the 49th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 65,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes in December, January, and February 2025 were 150,000 tons, 450,000 tons, and 420,000 tons respectively. The import volume in October 2025 was 0 tons. The spot crushing profit was + 1,278 yuan/ton as of December 11. The coastal oil mill crushing volume was 0.0 tons in the 49th week of 2025, with an operating rate of 0.0% [71][75][79][83]. 3.3.2 Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 49th week of 2025, the domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil inventory was 406,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week, a 4.47% month - on - month decline. The import volume in October 2025 was 140,700 tons, a 10.11% year - on - year decrease and a 1.59 - ton month - on - month decrease [87]. - Demand: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427,600 tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 519.9 billion yuan. As of the end of the 49th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 50,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week, a 0.81% month - on - month increase [91][95]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 49th week of 2025, the domestic imported and crushed rapeseed meal inventory was 0.0 tons, unchanged from last week. The import volume in October 2025 was 220,600 tons, a 27.99% year - on - year decrease and a 63,000 - ton month - on - month increase [99][103]. - Demand: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,957,000 tons [107]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of December 12, this week, rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed lower. The implied volatility of the corresponding options was 17.2%, a decrease of 0.08% from 17.28% last week, at a medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [111].