Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-12 09:21Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Macro environment is weak, and import volume is surging, causing the coking coal futures price to run weakly. The short - term market sentiment of coking coal is weakening, facing pressure from supply - demand and delivery. The decline trend of crude steel output will continue, and the downstream restocking willingness is insufficient. The coking coal futures 2605 contract should focus on the 1000 support, and the coke futures 2601 contract price should focus on the 1450 - 1500 support [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Week - to - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 189.8 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons compared to the previous week. - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 27.9 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared to the previous week. - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1949.79 tons, an increase of 36.89 tons compared to the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 4.19%. - The warehouse receipt of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is reported at 1350, with the discounted futures price at 1130. - The average profit per ton of coke from 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 44 yuan/ton. - The profitability rate of steel mills is 35.93%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points compared to last week and a decrease of 12.12 percentage points compared to last year. - The daily average pig iron output is 229.2 tons, a decrease of 3.10 tons compared to last week and a decrease of 3.27 tons compared to last year [7]. 1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee mentioned in the meeting on December 8 that it is necessary to ensure the supply of important livelihood commodities at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year. The core policy directions for major coal - producing areas in the 14th Five - Year Plan are stable production and supply, capacity continuation, and enhanced clean and efficient utilization of coal. - Overseas: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points during the December 9 - 10 meeting, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%. Most global investment banks predict that the Fed will cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points in two cuts in 2026, mainly in the first half of the year. - Supply - demand: On the import side, the number of customs - cleared vehicles from Mongolia remains high at the end of the year, and the inventory at the Ganqimaodu Port has reached 310 tons. In the industrial aspect, the capacity utilization rate of mines has declined for 3 consecutive weeks, and the clean coal inventory of upstream and mid - stream mines and coal washing plants has increased for 6 consecutive weeks, with a neutral inventory level [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Market - As of December 12, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts is 75.9 million lots, a decrease of 9.4 million lots compared to the previous period. - As of December 12, the spread between coking coal contracts 5 - 1 is 71.0, a decrease of 13 points compared to the previous period. - As of December 12, the number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts is 100 lots, an increase of 100 lots compared to the previous period. - As of December 12, the ratio of coke to coking coal in January futures contracts is 1.56, an increase of 0.06 compared to the previous period [14][18]. 2.2 Spot Market - As of December 11, 2025, the ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal (5, Ganqimaodu Port) is reported at 1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. - As of December 12, the basis of coking coal is 315.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.5 points compared to the previous period [26]. 3. Industry Chain Situation 3.1 Production - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 85.3%, a decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous period. The daily average output of raw coal is 189.8 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons compared to the previous period; the raw coal inventory is 472.4 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared to the previous period; the daily average output of clean coal is 75.0 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons compared to the previous period; the clean coal inventory is 255.3 tons, an increase of 8.3 tons compared to the previous period. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants is 38.2%, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous period; the daily output of clean coal is 27.9 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared to the previous period; the clean coal inventory is 332.4 tons, an increase of 11.0 tons compared to the previous period. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 71.92%, a decrease of 0.72% compared to the previous period; the daily output of coke is 50.33 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons compared to the previous period. - The daily average pig iron output is 229.2 tons, a decrease of 3.10 tons compared to last week and a decrease of 3.27 tons compared to last year [29][34]. 3.2 Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1949.79 tons, an increase of 36.89 tons compared to the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 4.19%. - This week, the inventory of imported coking coal in 16 ports nationwide is 481.60 tons, an increase of 11.00 tons compared to the previous period. - This week, the coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises is 883.33 tons, an increase of 25.9 tons compared to the previous period; the available days of coking coal are 13.2 days, an increase of 0.52 days compared to the previous period. - This week, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 794.65 tons, a decrease of 3.62 tons compared to the previous period; the available days of coking coal are 12.82 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period; the pulverized coal injection inventory is 422.86 tons, an increase of 4.15 tons compared to the previous period; the available days of pulverized coal injection are 12.55 days, an increase of 0.24 days compared to the previous period [38][42][46]. 3.3 Profitability - The average profit per ton of coke from 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 44 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is 61 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 100 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 5 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 89 yuan/ton [50]. 3.4 Policy and Output - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to continuously enhance the coal production and supply capacity and strengthen the coal's role as a guarantee. In 2025, from January to October, the cumulative output of raw coal in China is 397319.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In October 2025, China's raw coal output is 40675.0 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. - In September 2025, China's coking coal output is 3975.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.55% [52][54]. 3.5 Import - From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of coking coal is 9416.06 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%. In October 2025, the total import volume of coking coal is 1059.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. The import reduction mainly comes from Mongolia due to the increase of 7 days of legal holidays in October, resulting in a decline in the overall number of customs - cleared vehicles [59].