棉系周报：销售进度维，棉价震荡偏强-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to continue trading in a range due to limited fundamental contradictions. The global cotton production and consumption adjustments are minor, with期末库存 remaining relatively stable [8]. - In the domestic market, cotton procurement is mostly finished. Short - term downstream demand shows little change. New cotton sales are better than in previous years, and cotton prices are expected to remain oscillating with an upward bias [29]. - For trading strategies, in the short - term, cotton is expected to oscillate. For futures, it is expected that US cotton will trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate. For options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [45][47]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: The US cotton market has limited fundamental contradictions and is expected to trade in a range. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.0085 million tons, accounting for 65.7% of the estimated annual output, 11% slower year - on - year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are relatively high [8]. - US Cotton Sales: As of the week ending November 13, 2025, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 42,600 tons, down 36% week - on - week but up 10% compared to the four - week average and 22% year - on - year. The weekly shipment volume was 25,700 tons, down 17% week - on - week, 27% compared to the four - week average, but up 1% year - on - year [8]. - CFTC: As of December 5, 2025, the number of unpriced contracts on the ON - CALL 2603 contract by sellers increased by 692 to 22,408, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week. The total number of unpriced contracts by sellers in the 25/26 season increased by 727 to 40,020, equivalent to 910,000 tons, also an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week [8]. - Brazil: According to CONAB's December 2025/26 production forecast, the total cotton production in Brazil in 2024/25 is expected to be 4.076 million tons, remaining stable month - on - month. The 2025/26 production is expected to be 3.96 million tons, a decrease of 68,000 tons month - on - month [8]. - India: The CAI's report shows that as of November 30, 2025, compared with the previous month's assessment, India's 2025/26 cotton production increased by 80,000 tons, imports increased by 90,000 tons, exports increased by 20,000 tons, and domestic demand decreased by 90,000 tons, leading to a 230,000 - ton increase in ending stocks [8]. - Global: According to the USDA's December global cotton production and consumption forecast, the global cotton production in December was 26.08 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons month - on - month. The total consumption decreased by 60,000 tons to 25.82 million tons, and the ending stocks remained relatively stable at 16.54 million tons [8]. Domestic Market Analysis - Supply: As of December 10, 2025, the cumulative cotton inspection volume reached 5.084203 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.94%. As of November 28, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 4.1794 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 379,300 tons (9.98%) [29]. - Demand: As of December 4, 2025, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 2.736 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, 1.633 million tons more than the average of the past four years. As of December 11, 2025, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.3%, unchanged from the previous week. The yarn inventory of spinning mills continued to increase, with inventory pressure emerging [29]. Option Trading Strategy - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options decreased slightly. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7094, and the volume PCR was 0.8660. Both call and put option volumes decreased. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [43]. Futures Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: The supply of new cotton is abundant in the short - term, and demand orders are generally weak, with most downstream orders being small and scattered. Considering that previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, cotton is expected to oscillate in the short - term [45]. - Strategies: It is expected that US cotton will trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate. For arbitrage, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [47]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - Internal - External Price Difference: The chart shows the historical data of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend of cotton futures contracts [50][51]. - Mid - stream Situation: Data on the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, full - cotton grey fabric mills, and the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric are presented [54]. - Cotton Inventory: Information on the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, industrial cotton inventory of spinning mills, and state reserve inventory is provided [56]. - Basis: The basis data of cotton futures contracts (January, May, September) and the basis of US upland cotton are shown [59].