Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn has a bumper harvest, but the export volume is increased. In the short term, the support for the US corn 03 contract at 430 cents per bushel is strong. Currently, the supply of corn in Northeast China is increasing, and the supply in North China is also rising. There is still room for the spot price of corn to decline. In the short term, corn prices will continue to fall. It is expected that the prices of 03 and 05 corn will still decline, but the decline of 07 corn is limited. Currently, operations can be carried out according to seasonal patterns, and the spot price is expected to continue to decline in late December [4]. - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and starch inventory has decreased, but it is still at a high level. The spot price of corn has started to decline, while the spot price of starch is strong, and the profit of North China starch factories has increased. In the future, the operating rate of starch enterprises will still rise. With the large - scale listing of new corn, there is still room for the spot price of starch to decline. It is expected that the 01 corn starch will follow the weak and volatile trend of corn [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Corn: The US corn yield per unit in December is stable, and the export volume is increased. However, the production is at a high level. In the short term, the US corn is in a narrow and strong - side volatile trend, and the 03 contract has strong support at 430 cents per bushel. The in - quota tariff for importing US corn to China is 11%, and that for sorghum is 12%. Importing US corn has started to have profits, and the import profit from Brazil is relatively high. Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, the supply of corn has increased, but the port inventory is still low, and the port price is strong. It is expected that there will still be a wave of selling pressure for Northeast corn in mid - to - late December. In the short term, the supply of Northeast corn has increased, but downstream has replenished stocks due to rigid demand, resulting in a slight decline in Northeast corn prices. The supply of North China corn has increased, and the spot price of corn has continued to fall. The price difference between North China wheat and corn is still at a high level, and it is expected that the supply of corn will increase next week. It is expected that the supply at the northern ports will increase in the short term, and the purchase price will be lowered. There is still room for the 03 corn price to fall, but the decline of 07 corn is limited [4]. - Starch: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and starch inventory has decreased, but it is still at a high level. The spot price of corn has started to decline, while the spot price of starch is strong, and the profit of North China starch factories has increased. In the future, the operating rate of starch enterprises will still rise. With the large - scale listing of new corn, there is still room for the spot price of starch to decline. It is expected that the 01 corn starch will follow the weak and volatile trend of corn [4]. - Trading Strategies: The US corn has a bumper harvest, but the export volume is increased. In the short term, the support for the US corn 03 contract at 430 cents per bushel is strong. Currently, the supply of corn in Northeast China is increasing, and the supply in North China is also rising. There is still room for the spot price of corn to decline. In the short term, corn prices will continue to fall. It is expected that the prices of 03 and 05 corn will still decline, but the decline of 07 corn is limited. Currently, operations can be carried out according to seasonal patterns, and the spot price is expected to continue to decline in late December. Specific strategies include: trying to buy US corn 03 below 430 cents per bushel; short - selling 03 corn at a high price above 2240; long - buying 07 corn at a long - term price below 2260; conducting reverse arbitrage on 3 - 7 corn at a high price; and implementing a cumulative put strategy on 03 corn at a high price [4][5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International - US Corn Supply and Demand and Price Trends: In December, the yield per unit of US corn remained flat, and the export volume was increased. The US corn showed a strong - side volatile trend, and the 12 - contract had support at 430 cents per bushel. China has lowered tariffs on US agricultural products. The import tariff for US corn is 11%, and that for US sorghum is 12%. Calculated at an 11% tariff, the import cost of US corn is around 2274 yuan per ton, and the import profit is good. As of December 11, the price at the Guangdong port was 2370 yuan per ton, and the cost of corn imported from Brazil in January was 2177 yuan per ton, with an import profit of 283 yuan per ton [8][9]. - US Corn Non - commercial Net Long Position and Ethanol Production: As of November 10, the non - commercial net long position of US corn was 43,000 lots, showing an increase. The ethanol production in the United States has decreased. The US corn 03 is in a bottom - side volatile trend, and it has strong support at 430 cents per bushel [16]. Domestic - Inventory and Consumption of Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises: The corn inventory of feed enterprises has increased but is less than that of the same period last year. As of December 11, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 29.53 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.86 days and a year - on - year decrease of 2.51%. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises has increased. From December 4 to December 10, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises across the country consumed 1.4167 million tons of corn, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous week. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased, and it is expected to continue to rise next week. As of December 11, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 294 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.8% [20][21]. - Port Inventory: The corn inventory at northern ports has increased, while the grain inventory at southern ports has decreased. As of December 5, the corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.531 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 162,000 tons. The shipping volume at the four ports on that Thursday was 808,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 273,000 tons. The domestic - trade corn inventory at the Guangdong port was 66,000 tons, a decrease of 115,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 249,000 tons, a decrease of 87,000 tons from the previous week; the imported sorghum was 199,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley was 508,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from the previous week; and the total grain was 1.022 million tons, a decrease of 195,000 tons [24]. - Grain - selling Progress: The grain - selling progress of domestic corn is faster than that of last year. As of December 11, the overall grain - selling progress was 40%, a week - on - week increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 7% [27][28]. - Starch Market: The operating rate of deep - processing has increased. From December 4 to December 10, the national corn processing volume was 635,700 tons, and the starch production was 331,100 tons, an increase of 6,200 tons from the previous week. The operating rate was 62.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The spot price of North China corn has decreased, while the spot price of starch has increased, and the by - product price has remained stable. The enterprise profit has decreased. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was 29 yuan, an increase of 12 yuan from the previous week, and the profit in Shandong was 19 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from the previous week. Downstream提货 has increased, the operating rate has risen, and the starch inventory has decreased. It is expected that the starch inventory will rise next week. As of December 10, the corn starch inventory was 1.049 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.47%, a monthly decrease of 1.87%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [32]. - Substitute Products: The wheat price is basically stable. The arrival price in North China is basically 2,500 yuan per ton, and the price is strong. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. The prices of North China and Northeast corn are weak, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed, and the price difference between North China corn and the 01 corn contract has decreased [37]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Livestock and Poultry Breeding: From December 4 to December 11, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was - 120 yuan per head, an increase of 12 yuan per head from the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 252 yuan per head, a decrease of 9 yuan per head from the previous week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 0.07 yuan per chicken, compared with - 0.1 yuan per chicken last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.51 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.48 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.45 yuan per catty last week [42][48]. - Deep - processing of Corn Starch: The operating rate of starch sugar: This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 47.17%, an increase of 2.99% from the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 50.37%, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week. The operating rate of paper mills: This week, the operating rate of corrugated paper was 67.81%, an increase of 0.39% from the previous week, and the operating rate of containerboard was 70.47%, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous week [51]. - Prices of Corn and Substitute Products: The price trends of corn and substitute products are presented in various price charts, including the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port, the ex - factory price of starch in Weifang, the price difference between wheat and corn, and the price difference between sorghum and corn [53][54][57][58][59]. - Basis and Spread of Corn and Corn Starch: The report also provides data on the basis and spread of corn and corn starch, such as the 01 basis of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, etc. [61].
玉米现货偏强，盘面偏弱震荡
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-12-12 09:14