Dongguan Securities·2025-12-12 09:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [30]. Core Insights - As of December 11, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index has decreased by 0.7% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.5 percentage points, ranking 18th among 31 Shenwan industries. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 25.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 9.4 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 industries [4][11]. - In the past two weeks, among the sub-sectors of the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index, only two sub-sectors saw gains: Non-metallic Materials increased by 2.1% and Plastics by 1.0%. Five sub-sectors declined, with Chemical Raw Materials down 2.6%, Chemical Fibers down 1.8%, Agricultural Chemicals down 1.1%, Chemical Products down 0.3%, and Rubber down 0.1% [4][12]. - Among the 404 listed companies in the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index, 118 saw their stock prices rise, with Longgao Co., Daoming Optics, and Yongguan New Materials leading with increases of 29.4%, 23.8%, and 17.4%, respectively. Conversely, 282 companies experienced declines, with Changhua Chemical, Huasoft Technology, and Chenguang New Materials falling by 16.0%, 15.0%, and 14.4%, respectively [4][13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shenwan Basic Chemical Index has shown mixed performance, with a slight decline recently but strong year-to-date growth [4][11]. Chemical Product Price Trends - Recent price changes include increases in Synthetic Ammonia (+2.80%), TDI (+2.49%), and BOPET (+1.66%), while Urea (-0.53%) and PTA (-1.07%) saw declines [19][20]. Key Industry News - The National Energy Administration projects that China's crude oil production will reach 215 million tons in 2025, a historical high, with natural gas production expected to reach 260 billion cubic meters, a 35% increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [4][23]. - A meeting organized by the China Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association discussed stabilizing phosphate fertilizer prices and ensuring supply during the spring farming season, suggesting a "combination punch" approach to stabilize market expectations [4][26][24]. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the need for measures to stabilize phosphate fertilizer prices and supply, alongside a positive outlook for refrigerant companies benefiting from rising prices [4][26]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on Sanmei Co. (603379) and Juhua Co. (600160) due to their strong positions in the refrigerant market and overall industry growth potential [4][28].