中航期货橡胶周度报告-20251212

Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the rubber market from December 10 - 16, 2025, covering natural and synthetic rubber [6][7] - The rubber market is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillation due to a lack of prominent contradictions [7] - Attention should be paid to the impact of raw material price changes on the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [7] Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - Tire production capacity utilization rate remains stable [11] - The Thailand - Cambodia conflict affects supply expectations and supports raw material prices [11] Bearish Factors - Natural rubber inventory is slowly accumulating and difficult to deplete [11] - High production of cis - butadiene rubber and poor inventory depletion in factories [11] Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Prices - On December 11, the glue price in Thailand was 55.25 Thai baht/kg, and the raw material price in Hainan, China was 13,000 yuan/ton. Prices are weakly stable [12] Natural Rubber Inventory - As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.123 million tons, a 1.9% increase. Dark rubber inventory increased by 2.4% to 730,000 tons, and light rubber inventory increased by 1% to 393,000 tons [15] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Raw Material and Profit - The domestic butadiene market price fluctuated within a range this week. As of December 11, the delivered price in the central Shandong region was 7,450 - 7,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in the East China region was 7,100 - 7,200 yuan/ton. The theoretical production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 728.1429 yuan/ton [16] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises in China was 28,383 tons, a decrease of 1,142 tons. Factory inventory increased by 600 tons to 26,500 tons, and trader inventory increased by 220 tons to 5,450 tons [19] Tire Production Capacity Utilization - As of the week of December 12, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a 0.55% increase month - on - month and a 6.07% increase year - on - year. The average inventory available days were 40.58 days, a 1.07 - day increase month - on - month and a 1.38 - day decrease year - on - year [20] Rubber Contract Spread - As of December 11, the spread of the "RU - NR" near - month contract converged slightly, and the spread of the "NR - BR" main contract remained stable [22] Market Outlook - The fundamentals of natural rubber show weak and stable raw material prices, with supply pressure from the peak - season in Southeast Asia and limited downstream demand, leading to slow inventory accumulation [26] - For synthetic rubber, the price of butadiene is stable, and the output of cis - butadiene rubber decreased slightly due to equipment maintenance, but downstream demand is limited [26] - Overall, the rubber market lacks prominent contradictions and is expected to oscillate [26]