预计钢矿继续震荡走势

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - The steel and ore markets are expected to continue their oscillating trends. Steel products are likely to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to whether the main rebar contract 2605 can break below 3050. Iron ore is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, with the new main contract 2605 having a pressure level of 800 and a support level of 734. A short - term trading strategy is recommended [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Steel Products - Central Economic Work Conference policies are mainly for bottom - support rather than boosting, having no obvious stimulating effect on the market. The macro - expectation factor has diminished, and the market has returned to the industrial level. This period shows a situation of weak supply and demand. The second round of coke price cuts has fully landed, and the cost line is continuously moving down [4]. - The supply of five major steel products this period is 806.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.7%; the total inventory is 1332.09 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5%; the weekly consumption is 839.72 tons, with building material consumption decreasing by 5.7% and plate consumption decreasing by 1.3% week - on - week. The apparent demand continues to decline, showing obvious characteristics of the off - season. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to decline, and the inventory continues to be depleted, with the hot - rolled coil depletion speed being slow and the inventory at a relatively high level [10]. Iron Ore - The daily iron - water production this period is 229.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.1 tons, and it is expected to continue to decrease in the later period. The domestic iron - ore arrival has decreased this period, but the shipment is active. The total global iron - ore shipment from December 1st to December 7th is 3368.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 45.4 tons. The shipment from Australia and Brazil is 2655.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110.5 tons. The Chinese 47 - port arrival volume from December 1st to December 7th is 2569.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 214.8 tons; the 45 - port arrival volume is 2480.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 218.8 tons; the northern six - port arrival volume is 1278.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 184.5 tons [4][14]. Important News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8th to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [5]. - In November, China's automobile production and sales continued to perform well, with the monthly production exceeding 3.5 million tons for the first time, a record high. The production and sales in the first 11 months exceeded 31 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of over 10% [5]. - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, reducing the federal funds rate target range to 3.50% - 3.75%, the third interest - rate cut this year [5]. - In November, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the increase rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month; PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, rising for two consecutive months [5]. - The Ministry of Finance will renew 750 billion yuan of special treasury bonds on December 12th, which will not increase the fiscal deficit [6]. - The output of the Simandou Iron Ore Project may enter the production - increasing cycle from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2028, and reach full production after 2028 - 2029 at the earliest. If the current progress is maintained, the overall project supply in 2026 may be lower than the expected level of 20 million tons [6]. - In November 2025, China exported 9.98 million tons of steel products, an increase of 198,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%; from January to November, the cumulative steel exports were 107.717 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [6].