棉花周报：郑棉向上突破，整体偏强运行-20251212

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton broke through upwards this week. With the Fed's interest - rate cut and the expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, Zhengzhou cotton may challenge the 14,000 yuan/ton mark despite facing upward pressure [56]. - Internationally, the market fluctuated narrowly. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report was bearish, and U.S. cotton's weekly export data was weak. Short - term U.S. cotton is expected to remain weakly volatile [56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - Futures Prices: Zhengzhou cotton strengthened this week with a weekly increase of 0.95%, while ICE cotton fluctuated slightly with a weekly increase of 0.01% [11]. - Spot Prices: This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose 16 yuan/ton and the 2129 index rose 15 yuan/ton compared to last week [16]. - Import Situation: In October, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [21]. - Inventory Situation: As of the second half of November, the commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, and the market entered an accelerated inventory accumulation stage [22]. - Downstream Inventory: In November, the yarn inventory was 26.33 days, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.69 days [30]. - Yarn Prices: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of open - end spun 10 - count cotton yarn remained flat, while the prices of carded 32 - count and combed 40 - count cotton yarns increased by 30 yuan/ton [34]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts: This week, the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts plus forecasts increased by 1,062, with 2,967 warehouse receipts and 3,585 valid forecasts, totaling 6,552 [40]. - U.S. Cotton Export: As of November 13, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the current year increased by 187,600 bales, and for the next year, it was 17,600 bales [47]. - U.S. Weather: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. was 33.8%, with different drought levels having different coverage percentages [53]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestic market: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to challenge the 14,000 yuan/ton mark due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut and the expected reduction in Xinjiang's planting area, although it faces upward pressure [56]. - International market: U.S. cotton is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term due to a bearish USDA report and weak export data [56].