供应担忧叠加库存低位，沪锡再创年内新高

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The tin price may show an oscillating upward trend, with the short - term SHFE tin fluctuating in the range of 305,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on the low - buying and long - selling strategy [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On December 12, 2025, the tin price soared. By the close, the main contract of SHFE tin rose 4.54% to 833,000 yuan/ton, hitting a new high for the year. Supply disruptions and low inventory in the industrial chain are the main reasons for the strong performance of the tin price [3] - The security situation in eastern Congo has deteriorated recently. As the main tin - producing area, the escalating situation has kept the risk of tin ore supply high, intensifying market concerns. After two years of inventory digestion, the inventory in the entire tin industry chain is at a significantly low level, increasing the supply - demand contradiction and strongly supporting the tin price [3] Fundamental Situation - The supply side remains the core concern of the market. Problems such as financial pressure and blocked explosive transportation have slowed down the resumption of production at the Peruvian tin plant. Indonesia's refined tin supply is affected by RKAB approval and is expected to be restricted in the first quarter of next year. Political instability and poor infrastructure in Africa have continuously restricted tin ore production and exports, and the current risk remains high [4] - As of December 5, the processing fee (TC) for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,000 yuan/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative tin ingot production was 182,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. In November, the daily output was 1,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.1%. Some smelting enterprises temporarily stopped production due to raw material supply problems, causing a slight decline in tin ingot production in November. The long - term shortage of raw materials has led to the operating rate of most smelting enterprises being below 70% of the production capacity plan for a long time [4] Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the continuous tightening of the ore end has led to a shortage of raw materials for smelters, low tin concentrate processing fees, and difficulty in increasing the output of refined products. In terms of demand, the United States is still in the late - cycle stage, and fiscal expansion is expected to have a positive effect on the global economy. The semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and consumption in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle sectors continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand will continue to grow [5]