中航期货铝产业链周度报告-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the market is more influenced by macro - expectations. Wait for the adjustment opportunity after the macro - positive factors are exhausted, and it is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [6][7][72]. Summary by Directory Report Summary - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75% on December 11, 2025, the third rate cut in 2025, and will start "Reserve Management Purchases" on December 12, with the first - month purchase of about $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds. The central government emphasized a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026 [6]. - Domestically, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has changed little, and the output increase is limited. In December, although it is the traditional consumption off - season, the overall consumption has not declined significantly, with consumption resilience remaining. The aluminum - water ratio remains high, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not entered a continuous accumulation stage. As of December 11, the inventory was 579,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday. The current low inventory level still supports aluminum prices [6]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: The Fed's rate cut led to a decline in the US dollar index, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not entered continuous accumulation, and the overseas aluminum supply - demand remains tight [10]. - Bearish factors: December is the traditional consumption off - season [10]. Data Analysis - Aluminum Bauxite: In October 2025, the domestic output of aluminum bauxite was 4.7723 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The supply in Henan has recovered, while that in Shanxi is still tight. In October, the import volume was 13.77 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.30% and a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. With the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the import volume is expected to increase [21][24]. - Alumina: In October, the output was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As of November 13, the operating capacity was 89.559 million tons/year, with the weekly operating rate dropping 0.81% to 81.18%. As of the end of November, the operating capacity was 96.6 million tons/year, a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons/year [29]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In October, the output increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased by 1.4 percentage points to 77.7%. As of the end of October, the operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. In November, production of some enterprises may be restricted by environmental protection policies [32]. - Aluminum Processing: The weekly operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8%, continuing the weak off - season trend [34]. - Inventory and Price: As of December 11, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 579,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 520,800 tons, while the SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 7.25% to 123,630 tons in the week of December 5. On December 11, the Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum average price premium was - 60 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was - 28.51 US dollars/ton, with both premium ranges narrowing [44][48][52]. - Recycled Aluminum: In November, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 682,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,800 tons. As of December 5, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 61.5%, unchanged from the previous week. In October, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 33.7% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 50.7% year - on - year. As of December 12, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 73,100 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous week, and the in - plant inventory was 58,100 tons, unchanged from the previous week [56][60][64][68]. Market Outlook - For aluminum alloy, the shortage of scrap aluminum is difficult to ease, with cost support remaining. The demand side has full orders during the peak season, and the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [70]. - The current fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the market is more influenced by macro - expectations. Wait for the adjustment opportunity after the macro - positive factors are exhausted, and it is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [72].