国信期货苹果周报：多空力量持续博弈，盘面延续高位震荡-20251212

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of December 12, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory is at a historically low level, providing support for apple prices. The cold storage capacity ratio has decreased, and the destocking rate is 2.17%. With the approaching of Christmas and New Year's Day, the festival boost effect is obvious. The decline in production and quality strongly supports prices. Due to the nature of apples as seasonally - produced and annually - sold storage fruits, quality issues may increase storage costs. The quantity of high - quality goods is scarce, and the proportion of average - quality goods is increasing. It is expected that the price differentiation of different - quality goods will be significant in the later stage, and the futures contracts may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review The main contract of apple futures, AP2605, continued to fluctuate at a high level, with continuous game between long and short forces [8]. 3.2 Supply - Side Situation As of December 12, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was 7197900 tons, and the cold storage inventory ratio was about 54.65%, 7.22 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The inventory is at a historically low position, providing support for apple prices [13][36]. 3.3 Demand - Side Situation - Cold storage shipment volume is gradually increasing. As of December 12, 2025, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.35 percentage points, the single - week shipment volume decreased by 0.03 percentage points compared with last week, and the destocking rate was 2.17%. In Shandong, the cold storage capacity ratio was 55.09%, with a decrease of 0.24 percentage points this week. In Shaanxi, the cold storage capacity ratio was 53.12%, with a decrease of 0.36 percentage points this week [17]. - In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 80400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04%. The late listing of new - season apples led to a significant year - on - year decrease in export volume in October [20]. - As of December 12, the apple prices in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong were stable. There was little trading, and e - commerce platforms purchased other varieties [32].