白糖周报：北半球开榨，国内供应压力将增加-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is approaching the end of the season, with a significant decline in the sugar - making ratio recently. The international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestically, sugar mills are in the peak of the crushing season, and the supply pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports and high production costs, the downward space of the price is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Strategies: - Unilateral: The supply - side pressure of Brazilian sugar is easing as the season nears its end. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. In the domestic market, despite high import volumes and increased sales pressure, the price is likely to fluctuate at a low level due to high production costs [4]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes: - The ISO predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus of 163 tons in the 2025/26 season. Datagro lowers its prediction of the surplus to 100 tons, citing early harvests in Brazil and more cane used for ethanol production. It also reduces the sugar production forecasts of Brazil and India. Meanwhile, major importers like China and Indonesia are increasing their purchases [8]. - Brazilian Sugar Situation: - Production Forecast: Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 4,502 tons, slightly higher than in August and the second - highest in recent years [9]. - Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio: In the first half of November, the sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, while ethanol production increased [11]. - Accumulated Production: As of the first half of November in the 2025/26 season, the accumulated sugar production in central - southern Brazil increased by 80 tons year - on - year, despite a decrease in the accumulated cane crushing volume [13]. - Inventory and Exports: In November 2025, Brazil's sugar exports decreased compared to the same period last year. As of November, the cumulative exports in the 2025/26 season decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. However, the daily average export volume in the first week of December increased by 21% compared to the whole month of December last year [17]. - Thailand's Sugar Situation: - In the 24/25 season, Thailand's sugar production increased by 128 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, sugar exports increased by 37.25% year - on - year, and from January to October 2025, exports increased by 139 tons year - on - year. The 25/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production and exports of 100 tons each [25]. - India's Sugar Situation: - As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season increased by 49.81% year - on - year. The cost of sugar production has risen, and the industry calls for an increase in the minimum selling price [32]. - Domestic Sugar Situation: - Crushing Peak: As of December 11, in the 25/26 season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, with a reduction in the designed cane - crushing capacity. As of November 30, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi and Yunnan has both decreased compared to the same period last year [35]. - Import Profit: The import profit of sugar is relatively high [36]. - Import Volume: In October 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased. It is expected that the sugar import volume in November will be about 40 tons, lower than the same period last year [44]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The data mainly includes the cumulative and bi - weekly cane crushing volume, sugar - making ratio, sugar production, inventory, and export volume in central - southern Brazil; the sugar production, export volume, and inventory in Thailand and India; the sugar production, sales, inventory, and import volume in the domestic market. However, the specific data has been summarized in the above - mentioned core logic analysis part [46][51][63].