甲醇日报-20251212

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that methanol will mainly continue an oscillating trend. The international device operating rate has declined, with most Iranian devices shut down due to gas restrictions, leading to a slight disturbance in imports. Domestically, the supply is loose, the coal - made profit is stable, and the MTO operation in the inland is stable. Although the Fed's interest - rate decision in December is uncertain and domestic commodities are fluctuating widely, the impact on methanol futures is weakening [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures Market: The futures market oscillated, closing at 2067 (-10/+0.48%) [2]. - Spot Market: There are different quotes in production areas, consumption areas, southwest regions, and ports. For example, in production areas, the price in Inner Mongolia's southern line is 1940 yuan/ton, and in the northern line is 1960 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information As of 14:00 on December 10, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol during the period from December 4 to December 10, 2025, was 24.78 tons [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply Side: The profit of coal - made methanol is around 260 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously loose [4]. - Import Side: The US dollar price has risen slightly. Most Iranian devices are shut down due to gas restrictions, and the non - Iranian operation rate has increased. The expected import volume in January is adjusted up to about 1.4 million tons [4]. - Demand Side: The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, and the operation of some MTO devices is stable or under - loaded [4]. - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuates within a narrow range [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell 01 contract in the short term and pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions in the 05 contract [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Sell call options [7].