2026年海外&互联网&传媒行业年度策略报告：恒生科技：再出发，奔赴山海-20251212

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the Hang Seng Technology sector, indicating a "slow bull" market trend for 2026, driven by improved liquidity and AI advancements [19][29]. Core Insights - The Hang Seng Technology Index has shown significant volatility since its inception, with a notable recovery in 2025, where it outperformed major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Nasdaq [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of earnings growth as a foundation for index performance, with a projected revenue growth of 13.6% and a non-GAAP net profit growth of 21.7% for 2025 [16][17]. - Key investment opportunities for 2026 are identified in sectors such as AI applications, autonomous technology, and consumer internet, with a focus on companies that can demonstrate earnings upgrades and AI progress [27][33]. Summary by Sections Review and Retrospective: What Happened in 2025? - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a 24% increase in 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 18% [10]. - Major contributing factors included a favorable liquidity environment due to the Federal Reserve's easing policies and strong earnings from leading companies [19][22]. Industry and Trends: Which Sub-sectors Are Worth Watching? - AI applications are highlighted as a key area of focus, with advancements in technology and commercialization expected to drive growth [33]. - The report also discusses the importance of the gaming sector and the autonomous driving market, indicating a shift towards head-to-head competition in L2+ and L4 technologies [33]. Views and Strategies: What Certainty Opportunities Can Be Seen in 2026? - The report suggests that identifying companies with upward earnings revisions and significant AI developments will be crucial for investment strategies in 2026 [27][29]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index's performance is influenced by both micro and macro factors, with a strong emphasis on the earnings potential of constituent companies [29]. Key Stocks: Structurally Viewing Stocks and Grasping Quality Targets - The report identifies top-performing stocks such as Hua Hong Semiconductor, JD Health, and Alibaba, which have shown significant price increases due to positive earnings revisions and AI advancements [23][27]. - The focus for 2026 will be on finding stocks with potential for earnings surprises and strong AI progress [27].