Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Coking Coal and Coke [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Bai Jing - Qualification Number: F03097282; Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018999 [2] - Contact: TEL 82292661 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints Coking Coal - This week, the second - round price reduction of coke started, and coking coal prices continued to be weak due to the weakening coking profit. Near the end of the year, some coal mines actively reduced production, and some mines had temporary production cuts. Although the local supply decreased this week, the recent increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance and the decline in demand led to an overall loose supply and downward pressure on prices. The January contract is currently at a large discount to the spot, and considering the high probability of non - standard delivery items, buyers' participation enthusiasm is not high, and short positions are relatively concentrated. It is not advisable to participate in long positions, and short positions can consider taking profits at low prices [6]. Coke - This week, the coke spot market was weak. The second - round price reduction was initiated in areas such as Hebei and Tianjin, putting pressure on prices. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant. Recently, the demand in the coke market has been continuously declining. Under the pressure of blast furnace production cuts, coke enterprises may further seek profits from upstream. The current market sentiment is poor, and prices are under pressure for adjustment. The January contract is currently at a discount to the port wet - basis warehouse receipt price. Due to the continued expectation of price reduction in the market, prices may continue the pattern of volatile adjustment [43]. Summary by Directory Part One: Coking Coal Price - As of December 11, the warehouse receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1068 yuan/ton (- 49), and that of high - quality coking coal in Anze, Shanxi was 1273 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt price of Canadian Lukin was 1255 yuan/ton (- 1). The futures price of the main coking coal contract decreased, with a week - on - week decline of 10.83%, and the JM1 - 5 spread was - 71 (+ 13) yuan/ton [5]. Fundamentals - Supply: In December, more coal mines reduced production, and the local supply continued to decrease. Recent snowfall in the main production areas affected the downstream delivery rhythm, and some coal types temporarily stabilized due to limited resources. The operating rate of coking coal (523 enterprises) was 85.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 percentage points, and the daily average clean coal output was 750,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3700 tons. In terms of imported seaborne coal, Australian mines continued to control supplies, while overseas terminal demand remained, and coal prices continued to rise due to tight supply. The forward transaction price of Australian quasi - first - line high - quality coking coal Goonyella rose to about FOB 209.9 US dollars, a week - on - week increase of 3.39 US dollars, equivalent to about 1834 yuan/ton at domestic port pick - up prices, and the inversion range with domestic local prices has expanded to over 160 yuan/ton [5]. - Demand: Terminal hot metal production continued to decline, and the rigid demand for coking coal and coke remained under pressure. After two rounds of coke price cuts, there was still an expectation of further cuts, and high - price transactions at mines were still difficult. The clean coal inventory of 523 enterprises monitored by Steel Union was 2.5531 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 83,000 tons [5]. Part Two: Coke Price - As of December 11, the warehouse receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1576 yuan/ton (- 21), the warehouse receipt price of port dry - quenched coke was 1815 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Shanxi was 1850 yuan/ton. The futures price of the main coke contract decreased significantly, with a week - on - week decline of 6.94%, and the J1 - 5 spread was - 153 yuan/ton (- 4) [41]. Fundamentals - Supply: The coking operation was at a high level, but in winter, coking was frequently affected by environmental protection. Currently, the production of some coke enterprises in areas such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Henan was restricted, and the supply tightened. On the other hand, a few coke enterprises had resumed production after previous maintenance, and production had recovered. Overall, coke supply continued to decline this period, with a limited decline. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 73.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.68 percentage points. The daily average output of all - sample independent coking plants was 639,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5500 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mill coking plants was 466,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [42]. - Demand: Affected by the off - season, demand continued to be weak. Blast furnace maintenance increased, and hot metal production continued to decline this period. The supply of finished products decreased, and steel mills' enthusiasm for raw material procurement was weak. Downstream steel mills continued to passively accumulate inventory. The daily average hot metal output this period was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons [42]. - Inventory: The coke inventory of 247 steel mills monitored by Steel Union was 635,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,030 tons; the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 87,320 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,880 tons, an increase of 14.2%. The coke inventory at ports was 181,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [42]
二轮提降开启，双焦持续走弱
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-12-12 11:16