钢材年报：宏观托底有度，钢市震荡寻底

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The macro - policy adheres to the general principle of making progress while maintaining stability. The fiscal policy will be more proactive, and the monetary policy will be moderately loose. The government aims to stabilize the real - estate market [3][15][75]. - In 2025, the steel market was in a weak state. Real - estate investment and new - construction area declined, dragging down the demand for construction steel. Manufacturing and exports provided some support, with good plate consumption. Overall terminal demand was weak, and China's steel demand in 2026 is expected to slightly shrink. In terms of supply, the total steel output in 2025 remained high, with a significant decline in long - product output and a relatively small decline in plate output. In 2026, the crude - steel output regulation policy is likely to keep the output at a level similar to or slightly lower than that in 2025 [3][75]. - In 2026, steel futures are expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern. Macro - policies can provide a floor, but strong stimulation is unlikely. Weak demand and stable supply in the fundamental aspect. The decline in real - estate steel demand is the main drag, and the resilience of manufacturing and exports can only provide partial support, unable to offset the overall contraction in demand. The supply side has limited elasticity under output regulation, and cost and inventory pressures persist. The steel - price center will move downwards. The reference price ranges are 2,600 - 3,300 yuan/ton for rebar and 2,700 - 3,500 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [3][76]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Market Review - In 2025, steel futures went through three stages: "falling first, then rising, and then falling back". In the first half of the year, due to weak domestic real - estate demand, unfulfilled peak - season expectations, and unexpected macro and overseas tariff policies, steel prices declined. In July, policies and supply tightening led to a rapid price rebound, but later, due to unfulfilled policy expectations, prices fell back. From September to October, the "peak season" was not prosperous, and in the seasonal off - season from November, prices were weak and volatile. The overall price center of the year moved down [10][11]. 2. Demand: Real - Estate Drag and Manufacturing Support - Fifteenth Five - Year Plan Start: In 2025, China's macro - policies adhered to the principle of making progress while maintaining stability. Fiscal policy was proactive, supporting key areas and preventing local - government debt risks. Monetary policy was flexible and precise, aiming to maintain economic growth and stable exchange rates. The core tasks of the "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" include building a modern industrial system, implementing innovation - driven strategies, expanding domestic demand, and deepening reform and opening - up. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies and stabilizing the real - estate market [13][14][15]. - Real - Estate Drag: In 2025, real - estate policies focused on risk prevention and market stability. In 2026, the focus will be on building a new development model. In 2025, real - estate development investment continued to decline, with "three major projects" providing some support. In 2026, real - estate development investment is expected to decline by 8 - 10% year - on - year, and real - estate steel demand is expected to decline by 8 - 10% year - on - year, with its proportion in total steel demand dropping to about 21% [16][17][18]. - Infrastructure Rebound: In 2025, infrastructure investment was moderately ahead of schedule, with a focus on structural optimization. Investment in new infrastructure and energy infrastructure increased. Although the overall infrastructure investment declined slightly in the first 10 months, the steel demand in energy and water - conservancy sectors grew significantly. In 2026, infrastructure investment is expected to grow steadily, and infrastructure will remain an important support for steel consumption [22][23]. - Stable Manufacturing Growth: In 2025, the machinery industry was robust, with the excavator industry and ship - building industry performing well. The automobile industry had high production and sales, especially in new - energy vehicles. The home - appliance industry underperformed the market, with domestic sales being high in the first half and low in the second half and exports facing pressure. In 2026, domestic home - appliance demand may be under pressure, while overseas production may increase. Overall, manufacturing activities showed marginal improvement, but demand was not yet solid [30][31][32]. - High and Stable Steel Exports with Increasing Resistance: In 2025, China's steel exports reached a record high. Although exports to some countries decreased due to anti - dumping measures, exports to other regions increased significantly. The export structure was mainly composed of plates, pipes, and bars. In 2025, the export of hot - rolled coils decreased, while the export of building materials and billets increased [39]. - Weak Domestic Demand, Strong Plates and Weak Long Products: In 2025, the steel market was weak, with real - estate investment and new - construction area declining, dragging down construction - steel demand. Manufacturing and exports provided some support, with good plate consumption. In 2026, China's steel demand is expected to slightly shrink, with real - estate remaining a drag and plate demand remaining relatively resilient [44]. 3. Supply: High - Volume Pressure and Structural Differentiation - Policy - Guided Supply Control and Quality Improvement: In 2025, the steel industry issued two core policies to regulate the industry, optimize the structure, and promote growth. In 2025, steel supply was at a high level, with strong plate production and weak long - product production, and a front - heavy and back - light production rhythm. In 2026, China's steel supply is expected to continue the trend of total - volume control and structural optimization, with crude - steel output likely to be similar to or slightly lower than that in 2025 [50][51][52]. - Better - than - Average Steel - Mill Profits: In 2025, the steel industry's profitability was high in the first half and low in the second half. The profit in the first half came from cost reduction, while the profit in the fourth quarter turned into a loss. In 2026, steel mills are expected to maintain a meager - profit state due to pressure from the demand side and high - price fluctuations in raw materials [63]. - Inventory Analysis: In 2025, steel inventory pressure increased gradually. Inventory was low in the first half and accumulated significantly in the second half. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was higher than that of rebar. Weak terminal demand led to continuous pressure on steel prices from inventory, and if demand does not improve, the inventory contradiction may intensify [64]. 4. Market Outlook - In 2026, steel futures are expected to continue the volatile and weak pattern. Macro - policies can provide a floor but are unlikely to have strong stimulation. Weak demand and stable supply in the fundamental aspect. The decline in real - estate steel demand is the main drag, and the resilience of manufacturing and exports can only provide partial support, unable to offset the overall contraction in demand. The supply side has limited elasticity under output regulation, and cost and inventory pressures persist. The steel - price center will move downwards, with the reference price ranges of 2,600 - 3,300 yuan/ton for rebar and 2,700 - 3,500 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [76].