需求减弱，尿素延续跌势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic supply of urea is abundant, with overall demand being mainly rigid. In the short - term, domestic demand is stable, and the spot market sentiment is okay. However, the downstream's acceptance of high prices has cooled significantly. In the medium - term, the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas has subsided, domestic compound fertilizer raw material procurement is coming to an end, and the overall demand is weak. The urea fundamentals remain loose, and it is expected to be weak in the medium - term. Policy changes need to be closely monitored. The trading strategy is to go short unilaterally without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Overview: Last week, the view was that high prices were resisted and the spot price increase was weak. This week, the view is that downstream demand has slowed down and urea prices have corrected. The market sentiment has cooled, and the mainstream urea spot ex - factory quotes are weakly stable. Different regions have different price trends. In the short - term, domestic demand is stable, and in the medium - term, the fundamentals are still weak. The trading strategy is unilateral short - selling without chasing the short, and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [4]. - Core Data Changes - Supply: In the 49th week of 2025 (20251204 - 1210), the utilization rate of coal - based urea production capacity in China was 89.61%, a 2.91% week - on - week increase; the utilization rate of gas - based urea production capacity was 55.23%, a 9.89% week - on - week decrease. In Shandong, the urea production capacity utilization rate was 81.28%, a 3.99% week - on - week decrease [5]. - Demand: In the 50th week of 2025 (20251205 - 1211), the average weekly utilization rate of China's melamine production capacity was 61.86%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from last week. The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity was 40.62%, a 0.09 - percentage - point week - on - week increase. As of December 12, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,880 tons, a 55.37% week - on - week increase. This week (20251205 - 20251212), the urea arrival volume in the Northeast was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from last week. As of December 10, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.94 days, a 5.58% week - on - week decrease [5]. - Inventory: On December 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2342 million tons, a 4.36% week - on - week decrease. As of December 11, 2025 (the 50th week), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 123,000 tons, a 17.14% week - on - week increase [5]. - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is weak, the decline of Yulin pulverized coal has widened, the urea spot price is stable, the urea production profit has expanded, the fixed - bed production has reached the break - even point, the water - coal slurry production has a profit of 90 yuan/ton, the entrained - flow bed production profit is 300 yuan/ton, the futures are volatile, the basis has expanded to around 45 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 58 yuan/ton [5].