需求减弱，甲醇弱势下行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The coal mine operating rate is stable, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 76% and the Yulin area at 46% as of December 12. Coal production has recovered, but demand has declined, leading to continuous drops in pit - mouth prices. Coal - to - methanol profit is around 380 - 460 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol supply remains loose. The US dollar price has slightly increased, with most Iranian plants shut down due to gas restrictions. Non - Iranian production has increased, and the import forecast for January has been raised to around 1.4 million tons [4]. - The MTO device operating rate has recovered, but there are differences in the operating conditions of various plants. The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, the international plant operating rate has declined, and the methanol market will continue to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Analysis: The coal price is weakly falling, the coal - to - methanol profit is stable, the domestic supply is loose, and the inland MTO operating rate is stable. The methanol market is affected by factors such as international plant shutdowns, import disturbances, and Fed's interest - rate decisions, and will continue to oscillate [4]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, short - sell 01 contract and gradually build long positions in 05 contract at low prices; for arbitrage, focus on positive spreads; in the over - the - counter market, sell put options [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Supply - Domestic: As of December 11, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 76.64%, up 0.45 percentage points from last week and 1.50 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 68.87%, up 0.61 percentage points from last week [5]. - Supply - International: From November 29 to December 5, 2025, the international production was 931,455 tons, down 42,240 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.85%, down 2.90% from last week [5]. - Supply - Import: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 247,800 tons, including 229,700 tons from foreign vessels and 18,100 tons from domestic vessels [5]. - Demand - MTO: As of December 11, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 77.54%, down 9.94 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 90.2%, and the MTO industry operating rate declined [5]. - Demand - Traditional: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 8.98%, up 13.96% week - on - week; the acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 73.89%; the formaldehyde operating rate was 41.49% [5]. - Demand - Direct Sales: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 42,800 tons, down 41,700 tons from the previous statistical date, a week - on - week decrease of 49.35% [5]. - Inventory - Enterprises: The production enterprise inventory was 352,800 tons, down 8,700 tons from the previous period, and the sample enterprise order backlog was 207,500 tons, down 32,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 13.45% [5]. - Inventory - Ports: As of December 10, the total port inventory was 1.2344 million tons, down 115,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 108,200 tons, and that in South China decreased by 6,800 tons [5]. - Valuation: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 460 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi was 380 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis was stable [5]. - Spot Prices: The price in Taicang was 2,090 yuan/ton (+20), and the price in the north line was 1,950 yuan/ton (-40) [8].