棕榈油年报：生柴政策存变数，棕榈油宽幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025 from January to November, the weighted index of palm oil prices fluctuated between rising and falling. The trading rhythm was affected by factors such as the expected difference and implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the release and progress of the US biodiesel policy, the expected difference in production and export demand, the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations, and the repeated geopolitical situations causing greater fluctuations in crude oil prices [3][47] - In 2026, the global palm oil production is expected to increase by 2% - 3%, approximately 1.6 - 2.4 million tons, with the USDA estimating the global production at 80 million tons. Indonesia's production will only increase slightly due to policy - restricted planting area, possibly benefiting from improved technical management efficiency. Malaysia's palm oil production will remain at 20 million tons in 2026, basically the same as the previous year, mainly because of the aging of palm trees and the slow replanting progress [3][47] - Malaysia is currently facing high inventory pressure, and its subsequent tariffs may be adjusted to promote exports. The USDA expects the new - year export volume to be 16.1 million tons, a slight increase. Indonesia's export demand may increase slightly due to the postponement of the biodiesel policy, currently estimated at 23.7 million tons, with limited overall export demand growth. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is planned to be implemented in the second half of 2026, expected to bring an increment of 2 million tons, but it may be further postponed [3][47] - The global supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is expected to remain loose, and soybean and rapeseed oils still have price advantages, with substitution demand remaining. The Russia - Ukraine negotiation has entered the stage of a peace agreement, with supply expected to increase but demand growth slowing. Oil prices are generally weak and fluctuating at low levels, providing limited support to the oil market [3][48] - Overall, in 2026, the global palm oil production and edible consumption will maintain a trend of growth. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy will bring an increase in demand, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. Due to factors such as supply - demand mismatch, policy expectation differences, and geopolitical conflicts, there will be structural market conditions within the year, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely between 7,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton [3][48] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Market Review - In early 2025, palm oil prices continued to weaken. The failure of Indonesia's expected B40 policy in January, the strong US economic data leading to a stronger US dollar index suppressing the commodity market, and the high - priced palm oil suppressing market demand led to a continuous price decline. After the release of the USDA report in January, the significant downward adjustment of the yield per unit area and the Trump tariff policy boosting US soybean oil consumption demand led to a sharp rise in US soybean oil prices, causing palm oil prices to stop falling. After the Spring Festival, with domestic low - inventory status continuing, downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory, and the pre - Ramadan stocking demand, along with concerns about production due to excessive precipitation in the producing areas and Indonesia's re - emphasis on the upcoming implementation of the B40 policy, palm oil prices rose continuously. From late February to May, palm oil prices fluctuated and declined. In March, the producing areas entered the production - increasing season, the US tariff policy on the world raised concerns about market demand, the sharp decline in crude oil prices drove down the oil sector, and the continuous suspension of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy led to the price decline. From June to August, palm oil prices started to rise. The first - stage rise was mainly driven by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, as well as the US biodiesel policy expectation after the passage of the large - scale and beautiful bill. The second - stage rise was mainly due to the positive impact of the July MPOB report, the news that Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy was being gradually implemented and the B50 policy was in the testing and R & D stage. The third - stage rise was mainly because the inventory accumulation in the August MPOB report was less than expected, the preliminary ruling result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseeds was released, the US Environmental Protection Agency's biodiesel policy exemption obligation was less than expected, and US soybean oil prices were strongly boosted. In September, prices fluctuated due to the interweaving of multiple factors. In October, prices started to fall due to the continuous increase in monthly production, the increase in substitution by soybean oil due to its better cost - effectiveness, the weakening of palm oil export demand, the inventory accumulation exceeding expectations, and the supply becoming more relaxed [8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 MPOB Report - The MPOB's monthly data shows that in November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.94 million tons, a 5.3% month - on - month decrease; the export volume was 1.21 million tons, a 28.13% month - on - month decrease; the ending inventory at the end of November was 2.84 million tons, higher than market expectations. The overall impact of the report was bearish. From December to March, Malaysia's palm oil enters the production - reducing season. With the approaching of the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, domestic stocking demand is expected to increase, providing good support for palm oil prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction process of Malaysian palm oil [19] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is currently at a high level compared to the same period. The official reference price in December 2025 was set at 4,206.38 ringgit/ton, lower than that in November. The export tariff rate is 10%, and the export mechanism may be adjusted later to reduce high inventory. About 30% of Malaysia's oil palm trees are over 19 years old, and about 12% are over 25 years old, with an average tree age of about 15 years, approaching the decline period after the peak of yield per unit area, resulting in a slowdown in production capacity growth. The replanting of palm trees requires a 3 - 5 - year sapling growth period, and the current replanting rate is 1% - 2%, lower than the level required to maintain production capacity. Therefore, Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to be 20 million tons in 2026, roughly the same as in 2025 [20] 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Export - According to the latest data from the SPPOMA, from November 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.36% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 0.19% month - on - month. According to the MPOA, from November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared to the same period of the previous month, with production in different regions all increasing [27][29] - According to the data of shipping survey institutions, from November 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased compared to the same period of the previous month. The export volume data from different institutions showed different degrees of decline [29] 3.2.3 Indonesia Situation - According to the data from the GAPKI, in September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24 million tons; the export volume was 2.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.27 million tons; the domestic consumption was 2.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons. The inventory in August 2025 was 2.59 million tons [32] - Indonesia's forestry working group composed of military personnel and law enforcement officials is strongly promoting the nationalization process of illegal plantations, having seized 3.7 million hectares of plantations, with a target of reaching 4 million hectares by the end of the year, accounting for 24.5% of the country's oil palm planting area. The USDA estimates the new - year production to be 47.5 million tons, with only a slight year - on - year increase, more relying on the improvement of government management efficiency rather than area expansion. If Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is implemented in the second half of 2026, it is expected to bring a demand increment of about 2 million tons in that year, while squeezing some export demand. If the policy is continuously postponed, part of the demand will be transferred to the export side [33] 3.2.4 India's Vegetable Oil Import - According to the data from the SEA, in October 2025, India's vegetable oil import volume was 1.33 million tons. From November 2024 to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 16.01 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50,000 tons. Among different oils, the import volume of palm oil decreased year - on - year, the import volume of soybean oil increased year - on - year, and the import volume of sunflower oil decreased year - on - year [35][37] 3.2.5 China's Oil Import - According to the data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in October 2025, China's palm oil import volume was 220,000 tons, the rapeseed oil import volume was 141,000 tons, and the sunflower oil import volume was 32,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of the three major oils was 4.12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease compared to the previous year [39][40] 3.2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.1975 million tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 246,200 tons compared to the same period of the previous year. With the approaching of the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, domestic stocking demand will increase, and there are more import orders than before. Currently, the domestic inventory growth has slowed down, and it is expected to maintain a slight growth trend. The trading volume is average, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the holiday effect will provide some support for prices [42] 3.3 Summary and Future Outlook - The content is basically the same as the core views, including the price fluctuations in 2025, the production and demand situation in 2026, the situation of related varieties, and the overall market pattern and price forecast [47][48]