紫金天风期货油油油

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 25/26 period, most oils are expected to increase in production. However, in 2025, the production and consumption growth rates of major biodiesel - producing countries globally slowed down, and the demand growth rates of various raw materials declined, except for palm oil, which maintained a relatively high growth rate. The market is still waiting for the US to announce the compliance obligation volumes for 2026 and 2027 and Indonesia's biodiesel policy. The low price of US crude oil limits the imagination space for biodiesel demand, unless the government is willing to provide substantial subsidies [207]. - Due to previous improvements in rainfall and fertilizers, as well as an increase in labor, Malaysia's production exceeded expectations this year, and Indonesia also had a significant increase in production, resulting in a divergence between expectations and reality. Although the replanting rate of oil palms is at a low level, it has improved compared to the low point in early 2020, but it started to decline in December 2021. After 2021, the use of fertilizer raw materials in Malaysia and Indonesia decreased rapidly, and considering the lagged impact of weather, the production performance in the next few months may not be as good as before [207]. - Currently, the soybean crushing profit in Argentina is relatively low, and the global new - crop sunflower oil production is lower than expected. Palm oil has cost - effectiveness, but Brazil has not decided whether to implement the B16 biodiesel policy at the beginning of 2026. Under the overall expectation of a bumper harvest in South America, the price of far - month South American soybean oil is low [207]. - Different from the downward adjustment of global sunflower seed and sunflower oil production, the global rapeseed production is gradually increasing. As Australian and Canadian rapeseed purchases are restricted, short - selling rapeseed in the domestic market may not be smooth. The impact is more likely to be indirectly transmitted to the domestic market through rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal from Dubai and Russia. However, opportunities to narrow the price spread at high levels should be noted [207]. - Before there is stronger positive news for biodiesel, the price advantage will still support the palm oil price. But if there is no speculation on the supply side and no expectation of inventory reduction, the price rebound will be limited [207]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Price Movements: The prices of domestic three major oils and US crude oil fluctuated in 2025. There were several rounds of price drops and rebounds. Drops were mainly due to factors such as the delay in Indonesia's biodiesel policy, unclear US biodiesel policy, increased South American soybean production, higher - than - expected imports of rapeseed oil and rapeseed, and official clarifications on non - restriction of palm oil exports. Rebounds were caused by factors like floods in palm oil - producing areas, rebounds in US and Brazilian soybean premiums, insufficient near - month imports of soybeans, expected pre - Ramadan purchases in India, and rumors of Indonesia's palm oil export ban [4]. 3.2 25/26 Global Oilseeds Situation - Production and Export: The total global oilseed production in the 25/26 period was gradually adjusted downward, with significant decreases in soybean and sunflower seed production, but significant increases in rapeseed and cottonseed production. The total export volume changed little, with significant increases in soybean and sunflower seed exports and a decrease in rapeseed exports [5]. - Consumption and Stock - to - Use Ratio: Global oilseed crushing was slightly adjusted downward, with a significant increase in rapeseed crushing but decreases in soybean and sunflower seed crushing. The stock - to - use ratio of rapeseed increased significantly, while those of soybeans and sunflowers decreased slightly [12][17]. 3.3 25/26 Global Oils Situation - Production and Export: The total global oil production in the 25/26 period was adjusted slightly. Rapeseed oil production was increased significantly, while soybean oil and sunflower oil production were decreased significantly. Rapeseed oil exports increased significantly, palm oil exports changed little, and soybean oil and sunflower oil exports decreased significantly [19]. - Consumption: The total global oil consumption decreased slightly. The consumption of soybean oil and rapeseed oil increased significantly, while that of sunflower oil decreased significantly [21]. - Stock - to - Use Ratio: The stock - to - use ratios of different oils showed different trends [30]. 3.4 Rapeseed Situation - International Rapeseed Price and Spread: The price of Canadian rapeseed was weak [32]. - Canadian Rapeseed: In the 25/26 period, Canadian rapeseed production increased by 789,000 tons. Exports were expected to increase by nearly 400,000 tons, and the ending inventory would rise from 1.597 million tons to 2.5 million tons. The export was slow, domestic consumption was high, and the commercial inventory was close to that of the previous year [38][40][42][45]. - EU Rapeseed: In the EU's November agricultural crop announcement for the 24/25 period, the rapeseed yield was adjusted upward to 3.34 tons per hectare, the planting area remained unchanged, and the production was adjusted upward to 2.0206 million tons. Rapeseed imports were high, exports increased, and the monthly crushing volume decreased [51][53][55][57]. - Other Regions: Australian new - crop rapeseed production was increased, Ukrainian rapeseed exports decreased, and Russian rapeseed production increased [61][66][71]. 3.5 Palm Oil Situation - Malaysia: In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased more than expected, with a 11.02% month - on - month increase to 2.04 million tons. The export situation was complex, with a decrease in exports to India during the festival. As of the end of November, the inventory was expected to continue to increase [92][96][102]. - Indonesia: In September, Indonesia's palm oil production decreased significantly, and exports decreased due to the increase in export tariffs. The inventory remained basically stable at the end of September [121][128]. 3.6 Soybean Oil Situation - North and South America: The export of soybean oil in North and South America slowed down. Argentina's soybean oil export slowed, and Brazil's soybean oil export also decreased [132][134][141]. 3.7 Sunflower Oil Situation - European Sunflower Seeds: The production of European sunflower seeds was adjusted downward [151]. - Ukraine: Ukraine's sunflower oil exports were at a low level, with a decrease in exports to India and an increase in exports to the EU [158]. - Other Regions: Russia's sunflower oil export slowed, and Argentina's sunflower oil exports to India increased. The total sunflower seed production of four countries (Argentina, Ukraine, Russia, and the EU) increased [160][163][170]. 3.8 Biodiesel Situation - Indonesia: The distribution of biodiesel in Indonesia was slow, and as of November 10, the biodiesel distribution volume reached 12.25 billion liters, while the annual target was 15.6 billion liters [172][173]. - EU: The EU's imports of Malaysian POME, UCO, and UCOME increased, and the import of UCO was at a high level. The export of UCOME to the US decreased significantly, and the import of Chinese UCO remained at a high level [174][177][179][181][183]. - US: The proportion of soybean oil in US biodiesel feedstock generally rebounded, but the biodiesel production was lower than that of the previous year [185][187]. - Brazil: The consumption of soybean oil in Brazilian biodiesel was at a high level, and the growth rate of biodiesel raw material consumption slowed down in 2025 [195][197].