几内亚矿企复产带来成本下降预期，氧化铝预计低位运行多头情绪与基本面支撑犹在，沪铝预计震荡偏强

1. Report Title and Date - Title: Guinea Mining Enterprises' Resumption Brings Cost Reduction Expectations, Alumina Expected to Run at Low Levels; Bullish Sentiment and Fundamental Support Remain, Shanghai Aluminum Expected to Oscillate Strongly - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Aluminum Industry Chain) Weekly Report [2] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - Alumina is expected to run at low levels due to potential increases in Guinea bauxite supply, but should not be overly bearish considering some domestic enterprises' losses and industry integration possibilities [12][143][148] - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, with upward drivers from bullish sentiment and capital, and fundamental support from demand and inventory trends [13][144][148] - Cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly with aluminum prices, but its upward potential may be limited by weakening demand expectations and high inventory [14][145][148] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review - Macro and Important News: On December 10, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range to 3.50% - 3.75%. A Guinea - based enterprise was allowed to resume operations, and if the Axis mine resumes in December, it will contribute about 40 million tons of supply in 2026 [8] - Overall Market: This week, alumina oscillated downwards, Shanghai Aluminum oscillated weakly, and aluminum alloy oscillated weakly [11] - Outlook: Alumina may see cost and price support decline due to increased bauxite supply; Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly with bullish sentiment and fundamental support; cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow aluminum prices but with limited upside [12][13][14] 4.2 Alumina Fundamental Analysis - Spot: As of December 12, the average domestic alumina spot price was 2,792.78 yuan/ton, down 17.31 yuan/ton from December 5 [27] - Supply: As of December 11, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 79.62%, up 0.15% from December 4. In November 2025, China's metallurgical alumina production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year [31] - Import and Export: On December 10, the average FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton from December 4. The import window was open [32] - Cost and Profit: As of December 11, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,860 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from December 4. The industry loss was about 60 yuan/ton [34] - Inventory: As of December 11, alumina port inventory was 130,000 tons, up 3,000 tons from the previous week. In October 2025, China had a net alumina import [41] 4.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - Cost: As of December 5, coal prices in major producing areas decreased, and Yunnan's hydropower price in December rose to about 0.468 yuan/kWh. The price of pre - baked anodes remained stable [51][54] - Cost and Profit: As of December 11, China's electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,383 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from December 4. The average industry profit narrowed to about 5,300 yuan/ton [57] - Supply: In November 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. In December, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly [60] - Spot: As of December 12, the average price of Yangtze River non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 22,050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from December 5 [63] - Demand: As of December 11, the operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises was 61.8%, down 0.1% from the previous week. In November, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry rose above the boom - bust line [69] - Inventory: As of December 11, aluminum ingot inventory was 584,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from December 4, and aluminum rod inventory was 116,500 tons, down 4,500 tons from December 4. By November, the industry's aluminum - water ratio decreased slightly [72] - Futures Inventory: As of December 12, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 69,160 tons, up 2,327 tons from December 5. From December 5 - 10, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 7,050 tons to 518,750 tons [77] - Import and Export: The aluminum ingot import profit window was closed. In October 2025, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, with a cumulative export of 5.02 million tons from January - October, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6% [80][84] - Terminal: The real estate market is slowly recovering. In early December, automobile consumption data showed weakness [92] 4.4 Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - Raw Materials: The supply of scrap aluminum is affected by aluminum prices and seasonal factors. The price of scrap aluminum is expected to be strong [14] - ADC12 Cost and Profit: The cost of ADC12 includes scrap aluminum, silicon, and copper. The industry is currently in a loss state [107] - ADC12 Spot Price: The average price of ADC12 shows seasonal changes [109] - Overseas ADC12 Price and Import Profit: The price of overseas ADC12 and the import profit situation are presented [112] - Supply: The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of aluminum alloy are analyzed. The supply of aluminum alloy may decrease marginally [118][145] - Demand: The demand for cast aluminum alloy mainly comes from the automobile industry, but the sustainability of orders is uncertain [123][145] - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum alloy includes social inventory and factory - level inventory [132] - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy is analyzed [136] 4.5 Future Outlook - Alumina: The resumption of Guinea's mining enterprises may increase bauxite supply, but due to enterprise losses and industry integration, it should not be overly bearish. Caution is advised when short - selling [143] - Electrolytic Aluminum: After the Fed's December interest rate cut, bullish sentiment is strong. With fundamental support, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly [144] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is expected to follow aluminum prices to oscillate strongly, but the upside may be limited by demand and inventory [145]