油脂油料周报：政策消息扰动加剧，豆粕近强远弱凸显-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. CBOT soybeans oscillated lower this week, while domestic soybean meal oscillated higher. The market is affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement, trade policies, and South American weather and production expectations. - The oil market is in a range - bound oscillation, with obvious characteristics of a policy - news market. Different factors impact various types of oils, including international market conditions, inventory levels, and policy changes [59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Protein Meal Market Analysis 1.1 Market Trend - CBOT soybeans oscillated lower this week due to uncertainties in China's demand for US soybeans under the Sino - US trade truce agreement, the expected high yield of South American soybeans, and the reduction of soybean export taxes in Argentina. USDA's December report did not adjust the supply - demand of US soybeans in the 25/26 season, and subsequent Chinese purchases slightly alleviated the pessimistic export situation. Domestic soybean meal oscillated higher, with spot and near - month contracts rising, but the main contract M2605 was weak. The market showed a near - strong and far - weak pattern [6]. 1.2 US Market - Soybean Export - As of the week ending November 27, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 920,194 tons. The total export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season reached 11,867,705 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 45.6%. The export reached 26.7% of the annual target, up from 24.6% last week [10]. 1.3 South American Market - Brazil and Argentina - In Brazil, as of December 4, 2025/26, the soybean sowing was 94% complete. AgRural predicted the 2025/26 soybean production at 1.785 billion tons. In Argentina, the soybean export tax will be reduced from 26% to 24%, and the tax on soybean meal and soybean oil will be reduced from 24.5% to 22.5% [27][28]. 1.4 Domestic Situation - China's soybean import and storage situation: Cofco held an import soybean auction on the 11th, with a transaction volume of about 39.7 million tons and a transaction rate of 77.5%. Another import soybean auction of 51.39 million tons is scheduled for December 16. Domestic port soybean inventory is about 841.42 million tons, and the theoretical pressing days are 29 days. The domestic soybean oil mill start - up rate decreased to 57.42%, and the soybean meal inventory decreased to 113.0 million tons [31][38][44]. 2. Oil Market Analysis 2.1 Market Trend - This week, US soybean oil oscillated lower following US soybeans and international crude oil. Malaysian palm oil also showed an oscillating downward trend. Domestic palm oil and soybean oil in Dalian oscillated lower, while rapeseed oil in Zhengzhou first declined and then rebounded. The oil market is in a range - bound oscillation with obvious policy - news characteristics [59]. 2.2 International Oil Information - In Indonesia, the floods in Sumatra are unlikely to significantly affect the 2025 palm oil production. The government fined palm oil and mining companies 23.1 billion US dollars for illegal operations in forest areas. In Malaysia, the palm oil production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time this year. From December 1 - 10, the palm oil export volume decreased by 10.3% - 15.0% month - on - month. Germany allowed the use of grains and feed crops as biofuel raw materials, which will support the rapeseed market [62][63][64]. 2.3 Domestic Oil Situation - As of the 49th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4294 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65%. The soybean oil inventory was 1.4016 million tons, a decrease of 1.07%; the edible palm oil inventory was 0.6222 million tons, an increase of 2.98%; and the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.4056 million tons, a decrease of 4.45% [82]. 3. Market Outlook 3.1 Technical Analysis - For the main contracts, the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are entangled. The short - term indicators of soybean oil are entangled, the medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term and medium - term indicators of palm oil are bearish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of rapeseed oil are entangled [123]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Protein meal: Internationally, the rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, is decreasing, and the overall South American high - yield expectation remains. The short - term US soybean market oscillates between South American weather and Chinese purchases. Domestically, the oil mill start - up rate is stable with a slight decline, and the soybean meal inventory removal is slow. The next - week domestic auction volume is over 500,000 tons, and the import soybean clearance progress may affect future supply. - Oil: Internationally, the US soybean oil market is affected by US soybeans, international crude oil, and oil - meal arbitrage, waiting for the US biodiesel policy. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is high and exports are weak, and the increase in rainfall next week may affect production. Domestically, the palm oil in Dalian is under pressure from Malaysian palm oil and shows low - level oscillation, while the rapeseed oil shows intensified range - bound oscillation [124].