沪铜日报：震荡上涨-20251212

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The copper futures market showed an upward trend with an intraday increase of nearly 2%. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and positive signals from a macro - level meeting drove the copper price up. However, downstream demand was weak after the price increase, and in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship was expected to be in a tight balance with a bullish tendency [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - In December, 4 smelters were under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production, which would be reflected in January's output data. December's output was likely to increase due to the previous resumption of production by smelters. The production of copper strips in sample enterprises was 14900 tons with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 65.65%. The production pace slowed due to rising costs, and enterprises maintained a cautious attitude approaching the end of the year. The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises declined, with poor sales and inventory accumulation. If orders remained weak, production would slow further. After the price increase, downstream demand was hit, and the market was inactive with a tendency of inventory accumulation [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened and closed higher, rising nearly 2% intraday. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 30 yuan/ton, and in South China was 85 yuan/ton. On December 12, 2025, the LME official price was 11708 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was + 32 dollars/ton [4] 3. Supply Side - As of December 8, the spot TC was - 43.03 dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.38 cents/pound [8] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 32600 tons, an increase of 1102 tons from the previous period. As of December 11, the Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 100500 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 165900 tons, an increase of 875 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 447300 short tons, an increase of 2132 short tons from the previous period [11]