Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 12, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department 1. Market Performance Summary - As of the close on December 12, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Shanghai Tin rose over 4%, Shanghai Silver rose over 3%, polysilicon, Shanghai Zinc, and International Copper rose over 2%, while Shanghai Copper and Platinum rose nearly 2%. In terms of declines, Liquefied Gas and Coking Coal dropped over 4%, Red Dates and Coke dropped over 3%, and Glass, Eggs, and PVC dropped over 2% [6]. - Among stock - index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 Stock - Index Futures (IF) rose 0.68%, the main contract of SSE 50 Stock - Index Futures (IH) rose 0.71%, the main contract of CSI 500 Stock - Index Futures (IC) rose 1.27%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Stock - Index Futures (IM) rose 0.68%. Among treasury - bond futures, the main contract of 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) dropped 0.01%, the main contract of 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) dropped 0.08%, the main contract of 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) dropped 0.13%, and the main contract of 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) dropped 0.70% [7]. 2. Individual Commodity Analysis 2.1 Copper - Shanghai Copper opened and closed higher, rising nearly 2% on the day. In December, 4 smelters are under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production, which will be reflected in January's data. December production is expected to increase due to previous restarts. The production of copper strips in sample enterprises was 1.49 tons, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 65.65%. The production rhythm slowed down due to rising costs, and enterprises were cautious. The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises declined, with poor shipments and inventory accumulation. After the price increase, downstream demand was weak, and inventory showed signs of accumulation. Overall, the copper price rose due to the Fed's potential rate cut and positive signals from a macro - economic meeting, but downstream buying interest was insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance is expected to be tight and the price is expected to be strong [9]. 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened high but closed lower. In November, production continued to grow, and although the growth rate slowed down with the arrival of the off - season for salt - lake lithium extraction, production is expected to increase by about 3% in December due to frequent upstream capacity expansion news. This week, the capacity utilization rate was 75.34%, significantly higher year - on - year, supported by price increases and high downstream demand. The potential supply increase has not materialized as CATL did not resume production as scheduled on December 5. The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased in November. Although downstream production continued to grow, the growth rate slowed down. The incremental demand for energy storage needs further verification. From January to November, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 31.4% and 31.2% respectively year - on - year, and the peak season is coming to an end. Overall, the growth of energy - storage demand and new - energy vehicle sales is slowing down, and lithium carbonate inventory is expected to increase. In the short term, supply and demand remain strong, but caution is advised as the downstream peak season nears its end [10][11]. 2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to keep the organization's overall oil production unchanged in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2024. The peak demand season for crude oil has ended. EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil inventory was less than expected, while the increase in refined - oil inventory exceeded expectations. US crude oil production slightly increased and is near the historical high. The Trump administration is promoting a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined. The crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US has been falling. The US and Russia have not reached an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine issue, and the US is still pressuring Ukraine. G7 and the EU are considering banning Russian oil - export shipping services. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and the US has imposed new sanctions on Venezuela. Geopolitical tensions have raised concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. The crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US continues to fall. The Fed's December meeting has ended, and the market is still worried about crude oil demand. The number of US oil - drilling platforms has increased, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and Middle - East exports have increased. The global floating storage of crude oil has increased, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's No. 3 SPM is expected to resume operation around the 15th. Iraq has resumed production at the West Qurna 2 oilfield. Overall, the crude - oil market is in a state of oversupply, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [12]. 2.4 Asphalt - The weekly asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, lower than the same period last year. In December, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 tons, a decrease of 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year. Most downstream industries' operating rates declined, and the operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 2 percentage points to 27% due to funding and weather constraints. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 9.69% to 25.34 tons, at a moderate level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased and is near the lowest level in recent years. The recovery of some Iraqi oilfields, the US's promotion of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, and the decline in the crack spread of refined oil have led to a weakening of the crude - oil price. The US's sanctions on Venezuela have raised concerns about the export of heavy - crude oil and its impact on domestic asphalt production. Next week, Hebei Xinhai will switch production, reducing the supply of low - price products. As the temperature drops in the north, road construction is coming to an end, and overall demand is weak. The asphalt price in Shandong has stabilized, and the basis is at a moderate level. The winter - storage policies of some Shandong refineries are unclear, and the market is cautious. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate [14]. 2.5 PP - As of the week of December 12, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99%, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of the plastic - braiding industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06%, and orders were slightly lower than last year. On December 12, some maintenance facilities of Zhong'an United restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 85%, at a moderate level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawstring PP increased to about 28%. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years, and inventory reduction is slow. The cost of PP decreased as the crude - oil price dropped due to the recovery of some Iraqi oilfields, the US's promotion of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, and the decline in the crack spread of refined oil. New capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance facilities has decreased. The downstream peak season is ending, orders for plastic - braiding and other products are decreasing, and the price of BOPP film has dropped again. There is no large - scale centralized procurement, and the market is lackluster. Traders are offering discounts to stimulate sales. The supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, and there is no further macro - economic positive news. The spot trading atmosphere is light, and the PP price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The L - PP price spread is expected to narrow due to potential new capacity for plastics and the end of the agricultural - film peak season [15][16]. 2.6 Plastic - On December 12, the number of maintenance facilities for plastics changed little, and the operating rate remained at about 90%, at a moderate level. As of the week of December 12, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00%. The agricultural - film peak season is ending, orders are decreasing, and the raw - material inventory of agricultural films has decreased again. Orders for packaging films also decreased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years, and inventory reduction is slow. The cost of plastics decreased as the crude - oil price dropped due to the recovery of some Iraqi oilfields, the US's promotion of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, and the decline in the crack spread of refined oil. New capacity of 500,000 tons/year from ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE was put into operation in October, and 700,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in November. The operating rate of plastics has increased slightly. The agricultural - film peak season is ending, orders are decreasing, and the peak - season performance is disappointing. The temperature has dropped, terminal construction has slowed down, and demand in the north has decreased. The price of agricultural films has stabilized after a decline. Downstream enterprises are mainly making just - in - time purchases, and the trading atmosphere is light. The supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and there is no further macro - economic positive news. The plastic price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The L - PP price spread is expected to narrow due to potential new capacity for plastics and the end of the agricultural - film peak season [17]. 2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region remained stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 79.43%, still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate decreased slightly, and orders for downstream products were poor. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, and the anti - dumping tax is likely to be cancelled. However, after Formosa Plastics' price cuts in December, export orders decreased, and social inventory increased slightly and remains high. From January to October 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased, at the lowest level in recent years, and the real - estate market needs time to recover. New capacity of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua has been put into operation. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali production has decreased, and some enterprises' operating rates are expected to decline, but the production decline is limited. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. The cancellation of India's BIS policy has limited impact, and December is the traditional off - season for PVC demand. Coupled with the decline in coking - coal prices, the PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [18][19]. 2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened and closed lower, dropping over 4% on the day. In the spot market, the mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 1330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 922 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. At the supply end, a large amount of imported coal is entering the domestic market at the end of the year, and Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase in December. Some domestic factories are expected to reduce production after completing their annual production tasks. According to Mysteel, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking - coal mines was 85.31%, a decrease of 0.28% month - on - month. Although mine production has declined, downstream demand is weak, and mine inventory continues to increase. The total coking - coal inventory increased by 43.78 tons month - on - month, and the supply remains abundant. The second - round price cut for coke is expected to be implemented soon. Last week, the pig - iron production decreased by 0.93% week - on - week to 232.3 tons. Steel mills are entering the seasonal off - season, and their operating rates are expected to decline. Snowy weather over the weekend has affected transportation, and whether the price will stop falling depends on the restocking situation after the snow stops [20]. 2.9 Urea - Urea opened high but closed lower, dropping over 1% on the day. The spot price remained stable with minor fluctuations, and downstream buyers were观望. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1630 to 1680 yuan/ton, with lower prices in Henan and few high - price transactions. Fundamentally, after the resumption of some production facilities, daily production has increased to about 19.5 tons, but some gas - based facilities are still under maintenance, and production is expected to decline in the second half of December. Downstream buyers are mainly dealers and compound - fertilizer manufacturers. Due to the rising raw - material prices, the price of compound fertilizers is high, and end - users are reluctant to buy. Fertilizer factories are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the operating rate increased by 0.09% month - on - month but is still 2.97% lower year - on - year. The recovery of production is limited due to high raw - material prices and weak end - user demand. Snowy weather in North China over the weekend has affected transportation and postponed the restocking process. Inventory decreased by 4.36% month - on - month. Overall, the weather has affected market demand, weekend orders are expected to decline, the price's resistance to decline is weakening, and there is little chance of a significant short - term rebound [21][22].
每日核心期货品种分析-20251212
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-12 12:20