PP日报：震荡下行-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PP supply - demand pattern remains unchanged with no further macro - level positive factors. The spot trading atmosphere is light, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possibility of new PP capacity coming online this year and the gradual end of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of December 12, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On December 12, the restart of maintenance devices such as the single - line of Zhong'an United drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 85%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 28% [1][4]. - Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has decreased as some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq resumed production, the US is still actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and the crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US has continued to decline [1]. - There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased recently. The downstream has entered the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and other products have started to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the PP2601 contract decreased in an oscillatory manner with a position reduction. The lowest price was 6,110 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,186 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,129 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.18%. The open interest decreased by 58,109 lots to 293,184 lots [2]. - In the spot market, most of the PP spot prices in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 5,970 - 6,330 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 12, the restart of maintenance devices such as the single - line of Zhong'an United drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 85%, at a neutral level [4]. - On the demand side, as of the week of December 12, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 680,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. 3.4 Raw Material End Information The Brent crude oil 02 contract dropped below $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745 per ton week - on - week [6].