2025年11月金融数据解读：存款流向改变

Monetary Supply Trends - M1 growth rate decreased to 4.9% year-on-year in November 2025, down from 6.2% in the previous month[1] - M2 growth rate also fell to 8.0% year-on-year, compared to 8.2% previously[1] - New social financing (社融) reached 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate of 8.5%[1] Deposit and Loan Dynamics - New RMB loans amounted to 390 billion yuan in November, a decrease of 190 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 6.4%[1] - Resident deposit growth rate continued to decline, estimated at 9.56% in November, down from 9.69%[1] - Total new deposits in financial institutions were 1.41 trillion yuan, with resident deposits increasing by 670 billion yuan and corporate deposits by 645.3 billion yuan[3] Social Financing Insights - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by corporate bond financing and off-balance-sheet financing, while government bond financing and RMB loans to the real economy were the main drag[4] - Effective social financing growth rate (excluding government financing) was 6.00%, up from 5.92%[6] - Government bond financing growth rate fell to 18.8%, down from 19.2%[6] Market and Policy Outlook - The central bank is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated[7] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy[7] - The market expects 1-2 interest rate cuts in 2026, totaling a reduction of 10-20 basis points[7]