2026年A股市场策略展望：新老经济的平衡

Market Performance Review 2025 - The economic environment gradually stabilized under policy support, with PMI remaining below the growth line, indicating a "weak stabilization" trend [3][8] - PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed, while CPI showed an overall upward recovery, leading to a structural recovery in the economy, particularly in small-cap tech stocks driving a "fast bull" market [3][8] - The transition from "short on stocks, long on bonds" to "long on stocks, short on bonds" reflects a shift in trading logic, with the performance of equity assets improving significantly compared to bonds [9][31] Balance Between New and Traditional Economies - The contribution of the new economy to GDP remains limited, although it is steadily increasing, making it difficult to drive overall growth [3][20] - A style switch occurred post-August, with growth styles accelerating while value styles declined, indicating a divergence in returns between high and low valuation styles [3][20] - The valuation of the tech sector reached 3.95 times, higher than other sectors, suggesting that high valuation tech stocks may struggle to sustain market momentum [3][20] Market Outlook and Strategy for 2026 - The market is expected to be driven by value and quality styles in 2026, similar to the value bull market of 2016-2017, without necessarily requiring high trading volumes [3][19] - The investment logic for 2026 is characterized by "long on beta, short on volatility," with a focus on low-valuation value stocks to capture beta returns [3][19] - The market is entering a stable phase, with a gradual realization of low-valuation assets rather than a short-term surge in high-volatility assets [3][19] Fund Market Dynamics - The public fund market is characterized by a lack of incremental growth, maintaining a stock game due to the absence of new capital inflows [24][27] - Active equity funds show a significant bias towards sectors such as electronics, power equipment and new energy, pharmaceuticals, and communications [27][28] - The trend of excess savings has peaked and is now flowing into the equity market, indicating a shift in investor behavior [28][30]