长牛逻辑依然坚实

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global trade pattern reshaping has damaged the US dollar's credit, strengthening the hedging and wealth preservation attributes of precious metals and restoring their monetary attributes. The long - term upward logic for gold and silver remains solid. In 2026, the Fed will be in an interest - rate cut cycle, and the weakening US dollar index will support the financial attribute premium of precious metals, providing continuous impetus for gold and silver [3]. - Silver started a catch - up rally in June 2025 and hit new highs. With limited supply adjustment ability globally, significant demand growth, and tight available inventory, silver will continue to benefit from the triple drivers of "strategic resource + financial attribute + industrial attribute". In the context of expected falling US interest rates and loose liquidity, funds may prefer to allocate silver with higher volatility. It is expected that the silver price will continue to rise with high volatility in 2026 and outperform gold [3]. - The main fluctuation range of the international gold price in 2026 is expected to be between 3800 - 5000 US dollars per ounce, the international silver price between 55 - 75 US dollars per ounce, and the gold - silver ratio will fall to a central level of 50 - 70 [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Precious Metals Market Review - In 2025, precious metal prices soared. Gold led the rise in the first half of the year due to increased uncertainty in US economic and trade policies after Trump's re - election, which boosted safe - haven demand. In late August, Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium and subsequent Fed rate cuts in September and October drove gold to new highs, with the COMEX futures main contract reaching a record high of 4398 US dollars per ounce on October 20 [8]. - Silver started a catch - up rally in June. After the US government proposed to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list in August, concerns about high tariffs led to a large - scale transfer of silver, triggering a "short squeeze" in the London silver market. The silver price broke through the historical mark of 50 US dollars per ounce. As of December 11, the year - to - date increases of COMEX gold and silver futures main contracts were 61% and 113% respectively, and those of SHFE gold and silver main contracts were 55% and 94% respectively [9]. 3.2 Gold: Global Trade Pattern Reshaping and Damaged US Dollar Credit Provide Long - term Drivers for Gold - US government debt expansion and weakened US dollar credit: Trump's re - election in 2025 accelerated the reshaping of the global trade pattern. The "reciprocal tariff" policy and the large - scale debt increase under the Trump administration have depleted the US dollar's credit, increasing global economic uncertainty and boosting the safe - haven demand for gold [14][17]. - Fed's dovish rate cuts: The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December 2025 and restarted the purchase of short - term US Treasury bonds. The Fed's stance was more dovish than expected. In 2026, the rate - cut pace may be slow at first and then accelerate. The first half of the year may see a slower rate - cut pace to prevent inflation rebound, while the second half may see more rate cuts to support the mid - term elections [23][25]. - Global central banks' gold purchases: Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves since 2008, especially after the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022. In 2025, central banks continued to buy gold, with net purchases in the first three quarters reaching 634 tons. China, Poland, and other countries were the main buyers. Global central bank gold holdings have exceeded US Treasury bond holdings, highlighting gold's strategic position [30][32]. - Increased global gold investment demand: Geopolitical and macro - economic uncertainties have strengthened gold's wealth preservation and hedging attributes. In the third quarter of 2025, global gold demand reached a record high, with investment demand driving the growth. Global gold ETFs had significant inflows, and China's gold ETFs also set new records [40][42]. 3.3 Silver: Strengthened Strategic Resource Attribute and Record - High Silver Prices - Supply - demand gap expansion: Global silver production has been stagnant for five years, and the growth of recycled silver is insufficient to fill the gap. Meanwhile, demand in the solar photovoltaic, automotive, and data center industries has increased, leading to a continuous expansion of the supply - demand gap [52][54]. - Demand structure change: Solar photovoltaic, electric vehicles and their infrastructure, and data centers and artificial intelligence are the three major drivers of silver demand growth. The use of silver in the photovoltaic field has increased rapidly, and the demand in the automotive and data center industries is also expected to grow steadily [57][58]. - Strengthened strategic resource attribute: After the US listed silver as a critical mineral in 2025, concerns about tariffs and inventory shortages have affected the silver market. The low inventory of LBMA silver and the increase in ETF holdings have led to a shortage of available silver, triggering a "short squeeze" in the London silver market [66][68]. - Investment funds driving up prices: The large lag in silver price increase compared to gold in the first half of 2025 made silver a value -洼地, attracting investment funds. In 2025, the holdings of global silver ETFs increased significantly, and physical silver investment also showed a rebound trend [71][73]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Operation Strategies - The long - term upward logic for precious metals remains solid due to the damaged US dollar credit. In 2026, the Fed's rate - cut cycle will support the financial attribute premium of precious metals. - Silver will continue to benefit from the triple drivers and is expected to rise with high volatility in 2026, outperforming gold. The international gold price is expected to fluctuate between 3800 - 5000 US dollars per ounce, the international silver price between 55 - 75 US dollars per ounce, and the gold - silver ratio will fall to 50 - 70 [74].