股指黄金周度报告-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, domestic economic data is mixed with positive policy signals, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved, so the short - term rebound of stock indices should be treated with caution; the Fed's rate cut is settled, but the threshold for further rate cuts next year is raised, so gold's short - term rise is still a rebound. In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices will be dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth, and the support mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, so stock indices will maintain a wide - range oscillation; with the fading of uncertainties in US tariff policies, the potential easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the narrowing of the Fed's future rate - cut space, gold may face a deep - adjustment risk [37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Data - In November this year, imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, with the growth rates accelerating by 0.9 and 7 percentage points respectively compared to last month. CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to last month. PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month, mainly affected by the increase in the base of the same period last year and the decline in some industrial product prices [4] 2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - With the marginal weakening of the "two new" policies and the early release of demand for durable goods such as automobiles, home appliances and mobile communications, the profit growth of related industries has slowed down. Downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure and are in the stage of active inventory reduction. The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 24888.31 billion yuan. The central bank conducted a total of 6685 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 47 billion yuan [14][16] 3. Gold Fundamental Data - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in its December meeting, announced to buy $40 billion of short - term Treasury bills per month, and the interest - rate dot plot maintained the prediction of one rate cut next year. The 10 - year US Treasury yield declined slightly. The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures slowed down, and the inventory of New York COMEX gold continued to decline, reflecting a cooling of market bullish sentiment [21][22][36] 4. Strategy Recommendation - In November, imports rebounded slightly and export growth accelerated, mainly due to the low - base effect of the same period last year and the increased pre - Christmas stocking demand. CPI rebounded for two consecutive months, while the year - on - year decline of PPI expanded, mainly dragged down by the price decline of related industries such as building materials and chemical raw materials. In terms of corporate earnings, driven by policies, the prices of new energy and non - ferrous metals industries rebounded, which is conducive to the improvement of the profits of upstream raw materials processing industries. However, the marginal effect of policies on large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement is weakening, and the profit growth of related industries of durable goods has slowed down. The domestic policy side has released positive signals, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved, so the stock index may fluctuate in the short term. The Fed's rate cut and related policies have led to a decline in the US dollar index and a short - term rebound of gold [37]