Changjiang Securities·2025-12-12 13:16Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment themes for 2026 in the environmental sector, focusing on overseas expansion, carbon reduction, and pollution control as key strategies under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][6] - The environmental industry is experiencing a transition as domestic infrastructure peaks, with a projected 4.9% year-on-year growth in sector performance for the first three quarters of 2025 [6][28] Policy Guidance - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has not yet met carbon reduction targets, indicating a need for continued efforts in this area, while other environmental goals have been largely achieved [22][24] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to synergize carbon peak and neutrality goals with pollution reduction and green growth initiatives [6][24] Overseas Expansion - The report identifies significant market opportunities in Southeast Asia and Central Asia for waste incineration, with a potential market size in the hundreds of billions [7] - Indonesia's upcoming waste incineration projects are highlighted, with expectations for rapid development starting in Q1 2026, supported by sovereign fund investments [7] - Key companies positioned for overseas expansion include Weiming Environmental, China Everbright, and others [7] Carbon Reduction - The carbon market is evolving, with ongoing improvements in the carbon emission control system and an expected rise in carbon prices [8] - Non-electric green energy sectors, such as renewable energy heating and biofuels, are anticipated to benefit from policy support and growing domestic demand [8] - Companies like Zhuoyue New Energy are noted for their potential in the biofuel sector, particularly in the context of EU anti-dumping influences subsiding [8] Pollution Control - The water and air sectors are expected to see continued investment in pollution control, with companies like Xingrong Environment and Aofu Technology highlighted for their growth potential [9] - The report notes that the implementation of the National VI emissions standards will create opportunities in the automotive emissions control market [9] Diverse Investment Opportunities - The report outlines various investment opportunities arising from new production capabilities, cyclical trends, and debt management strategies within the environmental sector [10] - Companies involved in smart technologies and battery materials are identified as potential beneficiaries of these trends [10]