11月金融数据解读：M2负剪刀差再度走阔，居民存款搬家仍在继续

Group 1: Monetary Supply Trends - As of the end of November, M2 growth rate decreased to 8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value of 8.2%[1] - M1 growth rate fell to 4.9%, a decline of 1.3 percentage points from the prior 6.2%[1] - The negative gap between M1 and M2 widened to -3.1%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from -2% in the previous month[1] Group 2: Household Savings and Financial Behavior - Cumulative excess savings of households since 2020 reached approximately 2.11 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 428.5 billion yuan from 2.54 trillion yuan in October[2] - The release of excess savings indicates that the trend of "household savings migration" is ongoing, with a primary focus on financial asset allocation rather than physical consumption[2] Group 3: Credit and Loan Dynamics - In November, new RMB loans increased by 390 billion yuan, which is 190 billion yuan less than the previous year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4%[3] - Household loans decreased by 206.3 billion yuan, a reduction of 4.76 billion yuan year-on-year, with both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans declining[3] - Corporate loans increased by 610 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 360 billion yuan, indicating a shift in financing preferences[4] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Policy Expectations - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery in 2026, with anticipated actions including a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate reduction[16][17] - The overall financing structure is characterized by a shift towards short-term and bill financing, reflecting ongoing recovery challenges in the real economy[6]