策略日报：亮剑大类资产跟踪-20251212

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report indicates a bullish outlook for the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a V-shaped reversal and breaking above previous resistance levels, suggesting a potential spring rally [5][18] - The report maintains a focus on technology and non-ferrous metals as the best investment choices, with a target for the Shanghai Composite Index to surpass 4034 points [5][18] - The U.S. stock market is expected to rise further, with Google emerging as a new leader in the AI sector, replacing Nvidia, and the Dow Jones index showing strong performance [24][25] Group 2: Market Trends and Analysis - The bond market is in a long-term downtrend, with the target for the 30-year government bond set near the low point from September 30, 2024 [4][15] - The commodity market is experiencing a mixed performance, with precious metals leading the gains while steel and construction materials are underperforming [31] - The foreign exchange market shows a strong performance for the Renminbi against the U.S. dollar, with expectations of a stable yet fluctuating trend [26][7] Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Developments - Domestic policies include the introduction of optimized regulatory measures for lithium thionyl chloride batteries, aimed at enhancing trade facilitation and aligning with international standards [33] - The central economic work conference emphasized the continuation of proactive fiscal policies to support economic stability and growth [34] - Internationally, the U.S. has signed agreements with Japan, South Korea, and Australia to strengthen the rare earth supply chain, indicating a strategic focus on technology competition [35]