2025年11月金融数据点评：M1增速：能否企稳

Group 1: Monetary Data - M1 growth rate fell to 4.9% in November, down from 6.2% in the previous month[17] - M2 growth rate decreased to 8.0%, compared to 8.2% previously[17] - The decline in M1 growth is attributed to high base effects, reduced fiscal spending, and a surge in demand for time deposits[20] Group 2: Social Financing and Credit - Social financing stock growth rate dropped to 7.7%, down from 8.0%, with new social financing of 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year[7] - New loans (social financing perspective) amounted to 405.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 116.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with the loan balance falling to 6.4%[7] - Corporate bonds saw an increase of 416.9 billion yuan, up 178.8 billion yuan year-on-year, likely due to low base effects and policy support for the tech bond market[7] Group 3: Credit Trends - New credit in November was 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan, with both corporate and household loans continuing to decline[11] - The decline in private loans is offset by strong bill financing, which increased by 334.2 billion yuan, up 211.9 billion yuan year-on-year[11] - Household short-term loans decreased significantly, influenced by a slowdown in consumer subsidies and real estate price dynamics[11] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - There is potential for M1 to stabilize marginally due to continued fiscal support and the trend of RMB appreciation driving corporate foreign exchange settlements[24] - The central economic work conference emphasized maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total expenditure, which may help stabilize liquidity[24] - Risks include the possibility that the private sector's balance sheet repair process may not meet expectations[25]