12月中央经济工作会议点评：中央经济工作会议的几个债市信号

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core Viewpoints - Since Q3 2025, there has been a prevalent bearish sentiment in the bond market, with long - term bonds significantly adjusted and the term spread of ultra - long bonds notably widened. The current central economic work conference indicates that the current situation is still in a cycle of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected [2]. - The net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 may slightly expand, with the deficit rate likely to remain around 4%. Under debt resolution, the financing demand of urban investment and credit demand may continue to be weak [2]. - The importance of social financing growth rate may decline, and the future may gradually淡化 the total social financing target and shift more towards interest rate regulation. It is expected that the social financing increment in 2026 will be around 34 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate will gradually drop to about 7.3% [2]. - Currently, the conditions for a further reduction in policy interest rates may be met. It is recommended to patiently wait for the policy interest rate cut, and it is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in the first quarter [2]. - It is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5Y bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]. Summaries Based on Related Content Bond Market Situation - As of December 11, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased by 22BP compared to January 2, the yield of 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 38BP, and the yield of 5 - year commercial bank secondary capital bonds (AAA -) increased by 44BP. The "30Y - 10Y" treasury bond term spread reached 39BP on December 11, close to the upper limit of the [10,43]BP range since early 2023 [2]. Government Bond Financing - The central economic work conference's statement implies that the deficit rate in 2026 may remain around 4%, and the net issuance scale of government bonds may remain relatively stable. It is expected that the net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 will be about 14.5 trillion yuan, a slight increase year - on - year [2]. Social Financing - The central economic work conference did not mention the matching of social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level targets as in 2024. It is expected that the social financing increment in 2026 will be about 34 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate will gradually drop to about 7.3% [2]. Policy Interest Rate - The conditions for a policy interest rate cut may be met. The Fed cut interest rates by 75BP in the second half of the year, the Sino - US interest rate spread inversion has been significantly alleviated, the RMB exchange rate has changed from depreciation to a slight appreciation, the cost rate of banks' interest - bearing liabilities has declined steadily, and the economy is under downward pressure [2]. Bond Market Outlook - In 2026, the bond market may perform better than expected. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in the first quarter. In the long - term, the yield of 30Y treasury bonds is expected to fall below 2% [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Currently, it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5Y bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]