2025 年 11 月金融数据点评：如何解读 11 月金融数据？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Credit demand remains weak, with new loans in November significantly lower than the same period last year, and future new loans may continue to be lower year - on - year, with loan growth rates continuing to decline [2] - M1 growth continues to decline, and it may further drop in the future. M2 growth decreased slightly month - on - month in November [2] - Social financing growth may continue to decline in the next few months, with an expected year - end social financing growth rate of around 8.2% [2] - The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected, with a recommended focus on the allocation value of 5Y bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 November Financial Data - On the evening of December 12, the central bank disclosed November financial data: new loans were 39 billion yuan, and social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan. At the end of November, M2 reached 337 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%; M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year; and the social financing growth rate was 8.5% [1] 3.2 Credit Situation - Due to weak credit demand, new loans in the first month of a quarter are usually low, while banks prefer to boost credit scales at the end of a quarter. In November, new loans were only 39 billion yuan, significantly lower than the same period last year. Personal loans were - 20.63 billion yuan, corporate loans were + 61 billion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans were - 1.47 billion yuan [2] - In November, short - term personal loans were - 21.58 billion yuan, and long - term personal loans were + 1 billion yuan, both significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating that residents are actively de - leveraging, and consumption and mortgage credit demands are weak. Corporate short - term loans were + 10 billion yuan, corporate long - term loans were + 17 billion yuan, and bill financing was + 33.42 billion yuan, showing weak corporate credit demand [2] 3.3 M1 and M2 Situation - Since January 2025, the central bank has used a new M1 caliber, which further includes personal current deposits and non - bank payment institution customer reserves. The new M1 growth rate is more stable. In November, the new M1 growth rate was 4.9%, 1.3 percentage points lower than the end of last month, and has been declining since the end of September. The M2 growth rate was 8.0% at the end of November, a slight month - on - month decrease [2] 3.4 Social Financing Situation - In November, the social financing increment was 2.49 trillion yuan (2.33 trillion yuan in November 2024), a slight year - on - year increase, mainly from off - balance - sheet financing and net corporate bond financing. The increment of RMB loans to the real economy in November was 40.53 billion yuan, 11.63 billion yuan less than the same period last year [2] - Entrusted loans were - 1.88 billion yuan, trust loans were + 8.44 billion yuan, undiscounted bank acceptance bills were + 14.9 billion yuan; corporate bond net financing was 41.69 billion yuan, 17.88 billion yuan more than the same period last year; government bond net financing was 1.2 trillion yuan. Due to the slight year - on - year increase in social financing, the social financing growth rate remained flat at 8.5% at the end of November [2] - It is expected that the new loans (social financing caliber) for the whole year will be lower year - on - year, government bond net financing will expand significantly year - on - year, social financing will increase year - on - year, the social financing growth rate may first rise and then fall, and the year - end social financing growth rate will be around 8.2%. Due to the misaligned issuance rhythm of government bonds, the social financing growth rate peaked in July, and it may continue to decline significantly in the next few months [2] 3.5 Bond Market Outlook - Since the second half of the year, the bond market has often deviated from the fundamentals and is dominated by institutional behavior. Currently, the long - term bond yield has reached a new high this year, and with the increasing economic downward pressure, the probability of a successful long - position is high. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be lowered by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in the first quarter [2] - Currently, many non - bank institutions are bearish on the bond market, but the bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected. The rapid decline in bank liability costs, the high allocation value of government bonds, and weak credit demand are expected to support banks to significantly increase bond investments. In addition, the rapid growth of wealth management scale and the low proportion of bond holdings in wealth management are expected to support credit bonds within 3 years. It is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5Y bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [2]